The Buffalo Bills inked Spencer Brown to a four-year, $72 million deal with $45 million guaranteed last week with details of the contract coming out on September 10. Brown is the latest example of draft, develop, and retain that has rewarded handsomely since Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott arrived in town.
While that number is eye-popping breaking down to $18 million AAV, some may be concerned that this is too much for what appears to be an oft-injured player. Brown certainly has had his share of injuries over his football career, but when compared against his peers both financially and health-wise, Brown comes out looking pretty good.
Injury history and availability is certainly baked into contracts and Brown was no exception. The Bills are taking a risk in signing him to a contract extension, but considering the market for the tackle position, if they didn’t sign him, someone else would have, injuries and cap room be damned.
Below is the injury history for Spencer Brown, comparable offensive tackles with regard to their contracts and injuries, and analysis.
Spencer Brown Injury History
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
High School
2015 Junior year: Left femur fracture during high school, osteochondral defect under the patella, both required surgical repair.
2016 Senior year: Meniscus tear, required surgery.
College
2017 Northern Iowa: Missed 9 games, ended the season (Right MCL tear, patellar tendon damage)
NFL
2021 Buffalo Bills: Missed 4 games (Left knee injury preseason, Herniated disc- required microdiscectomy, COVID- missed 2 games, Right shoulder/stinger)
2022 Bills: Missed 2 games (Right ankle sprain)
2023 Bills: Missed 0 games (Left shoulder, Right knee, Shoulder labrum repair)
Injury & Contract Comparables
Great Value
Penei Sewell
2 Pro Bowl, 1 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2024 4 years, $28M AAV $112M, $85 GTD
2021 Detroit Lions: Missed 0 games (Ankle, Shoulder, Illness)
2022 Lions: No notable injuries
2023 Lions: Missed 0 games (Concussion, Shoulder)
Taylor Moton
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2021 5 yrs, $85M, $17.03M AAV, $20.74M GTD
2017 Carolina Panthers: No notable injuries
2018 Panthers: No notable injuries
2019 Panthers: Missed 0 games (Knee)
2020 Panthers: No notable injuries
2021 Panthers: Missed 0 games (Groin)
2022 Panthers: Missed 0 games (Knee, Elbow)
2023 Panthers: Missed 0 games (Knee)
Rob Haverstein
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2022 3 years, $34.5M, $11.5M AAV, $19M GTD
2015 St. Louis Rams: Missed 3 games (Ankle, Calf)
2016 Los Angeles Rams: missed 1 game (Foot, Ankle)
2017 Rams: No notable injuries
2018 Rams: No notable injuries
2019 Rams: Missed 5 games (Right knee meniscus)
2020 Rams: No notable injuries
2021 Rams: Missed 0 games (Foot)
2022 Rams: No notable injuries
2023 Rams: Missed 3 games (Calf, Groin)
Kaleb McGary
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2023 3 years, $34.5M, $11.5M AAV, $15M GTD
2019 Atlanta Falcons: Had pre-existing heart issue, required cardiac ablation, no notable in-season injuries
2020 Falcons: Missed 2 games (Left knee)
2021 Falcons: No notable injuries
2022 Falcons: No notable injuries
2023 Falcons: Missed 3 games (Knee, Knee)
Fair Value
Brian O’Neill
1 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2021 5 years, $92.5M, $18.5M AAV, $22M GTD
2018 Minnesota Vikings: No notable injuries
2019 Vikings: No notable injuries
2020 Vikings: No notable injuries
2021 Vikings: No notable injuries
2022 Vikings: Missed 2 games, finished season on IR (Partially torn Achilles)
2023 Vikings: Missed 3 games (Ankle)
Mike McGlinchey
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
New Contract: 2023 5 years, $87.5M, $17.5M AAV, $35M GTD
2018 San Francisco 49ers: Missed 0 games (Knee, required PRP injection in offseason)
2019 49ers: Missed 4 games (Knee)
2020 49ers: No notable injuries
2021 49ers: Missed 12 games, ended the season on IR (Torn Quadriceps)
2022 49ers: No notable injuries
2023 Denver Broncos: Missed 1 game (Ribs)
Braden Smith
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2021 4 years, $70M, $17.5M AAV, $32M GTD
2018 Indianapolis Colts: No notable injuries
2019 Colts: No notable injuries
2020 Colts: Missed 2 games (Thumb, COVID)
2021 Colts: Missed 6 games (Foot)
2022 Colts: Missed 1 game (Illness, also played through back injury)
2023 Colts: Missed 7 games (Foot, Hip, Wrist, Left knee required off-season surgery)
Terence Steele
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2023 5 years, $82.5M, $16.5M AAV, $23M GTD
2020 Dallas Cowboys: No notable injuries
2021 Cowboys: No notable injuries
2022 Cowboys: Missed 6 games, finished season on IR (Neck, Left ACL tear)
2023 Cowboys: No notable injuries
Jonah Williams
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
New Contract: 2024 2 years, $30M, $15M AAV, $19M GTD
2019 Cincinnati Bengals: Missed 16 games (Left Shoulder labrum repair)
2020 Bengals: Missed 2 games, finished the season on IR (Neck, Knee)
2021 Bengals: No notable injuries
2022 Bengals: Missed 2 games (Left dislocated kneecap, required surgery)
2023 Bengals: No notable injuries
Austin Jackson
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2023 3 years, $36M, $12M AAV, $13M GTD
2020 Miami Dolphins: Missed 4 games, IR stint (Foot)
2021 Dolphins: Missed 0 games (Illness)
2022 Dolphins: Missed 15 games, went to IR (Right ankle reconstruction)
2023 Dolphins: Missed 1 game (Oblique)
Poor Value
Jack Conklin
0 Pro Bowl, 2 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2022 4 years, $60M, $15M AAV, $12.5M GTD
2016 Tennessee Titans: No notable injuries
2017 Titans: Missed 0 games (Left ACL tear final game)
2018 Titans: Missed 7 games, finished the season on IR (Knee recovery, Concussion, Knee)
2019 Titans: Missed 0 games (Shoulder)
2020 Cleveland Browns: Missed 1 game (COVID, Hamstring, Finger, Ankle)
2021 Browns: Missed 10 games (Dislocated left elbow, Knee, Right torn patellar tendon)
2022 Browns: Missed 2 games (Knee, Ankle)
2023 Browns: Missed 16 games (Concussion, Left ACL/MCL tear)
Joe Noteboom
0 Pro Bowl, 0 All-Pro
Contract Extension: 2022 3 years, $40M, $13.3M AAV, $16.5M GTD
2018 Los Angeles Rams: No notable injuries
2019 Rams: Missed 10 games, finished the season on IR (Right ACL/MCL tear)
2020 Rams: Missed 4 games, IR (Calf)
2021 Rams: Missed 2 games, finished the season on IR (Chest/Pectoral)
2022 Rams: Missed 11 games (MCL knee sprain, Achilles tear)
2023 Rams: Missed 0 games (Groin, Foot)
Analysis
Looking at everything as a whole, Brown stacks up far more favorably from an availability standpoint compared to just about everyone on this list. The only ones that have better availability than Brown are Sewell, Moton, and McGary. Haverstein and O’Neill had excellent availability prior to the contract extensions. Finally, Steele has only had the ACL tear but returned the following season and didn’t have any missed time outside of when he injured his knee.
Even with those who have suffered major injuries, this has not prevented teams from giving massive extensions in the hopes they were one-off issues such as Conklin and Noteboom.
Only three of the twelve players ended up signing with new teams for their latest contracts (Conklin, McGlinchey, and Williams). All three were free agents which means that if they are an elite offensive tackle in the NFL, the team is doing everything they can to keep him around.
Conklin has not lived up to his contract, McGlinchey had some notable injury concerns, and Williams had initially requested a trade before leaving in free agency following the season. Excluding the players that exhibit great value, every other player had injuries that are of equal or greater concern to that of Brown with far more missed time comparatively.
Brown’s injury history in comparison to everyone else is incredibly favorable as the recent shoulder injury is notable but should not affect performance moving forward. There is a 13-26 chance he re-tears the labrum, but far less of an issue than if he did not have it repaired.
His knee injuries from high school are not concerning as he had the meniscus repaired. Studies show that 80 percent who had a repair showed no osteoarthritis changes after eight years compared to the 40 percent who had a meniscectomy. The meniscus injury along with the fracture and osteochondral defect are far less concerning compared to the multiple ACL tears and other significant knee injuries others experienced.
The only concern may be his back if he has any current or future disc herniations. However, he showed the ability to return to play as evident by the literature and only 15 percent require a decompression revision.
Given how the contracts continue to rise, $18 million is a very fair price for Spencer Brown when compared to everyone else. I’m sure the Bills would have loved to lock him in at $15-16 million, but his agents knew that his price tag was far greater than that.
Final Thoughts
While I have not always been a fan of bigger contracts given to players with questionable injury histories, looking at Spencer Brown as he compares to his peers changes my mind. The specific types of injuries may be more of a factor than the volume. The market also dictates how much a player should make and while there are exceptions, most players are going to take the most amount of money in free agency. As long as Brown can avoid what Jack Conklin and Joe Noteboom have gone through, then this contract will be a decent value.
Congratulations to Spencer Brown on his new contract and to remain healthy for years to come. T
Top Photo Credit: Buffalo Rumblings
