It’s deja vu all over again!
That’s at least what it feels like as the Buffalo Bills get ready to once again play the New England Patriots in Week 18 after seeing them just two weeks ago in Week 16. The regular season finale is here and this is the calm before the storm. This game does not carry any notable significance for the Buffalo Bills as the number two seed and the AFC East division have been locked up.
The Patriots technically have something to play for in that a loss will allow them the chance to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL draft. This is not something that the team necessarily wants to achieve, but a selection that high could allow them to find another franchise cornerstone to begin climbing out of the NFL basement. They could also trade the pick for players and other draft picks to stock the roster with quality talent.
This game provides an opportunity for both teams to get one final look at players for next year who are currently in backup roles or on the practice squad. This also allows the Bills to rest some key players ahead of what appears to be a tough path to the Super Bowl.
Below are the injury reports and analysis for both teams along with projected inactives and final thoughts.
Buffalo Bills Injury Report
OUT
LB Terrel Bernard (Left Quad)
Bernard was ruled out on Wednesday as he works through a left leg quadriceps contusion as seen in the play below. This injury was difficult to find as Bernard stayed in through the end of the third quarter and appeared to play reasonably well until the starters were pulled.
AJ Feldman of News 8 in Rochester was able to confirm some of the timeframe when Bernard was injured as he observed him getting the leg wrapped on the sidelines before the Amari Cooper touchdown.
What Bernard is dealing with is likely a quad contusion, a bruise to the muscle. Collisions are part of the sport, but significant enough hits cause damage to the muscle fibers by crushing them and the surrounding connective tissue.
This can lead to bruising and swelling in the area and around the joint, limiting range of motion. The musculature in the area may feel stiff and weak, limiting function. There may be also a hematoma which is a collection of blood in the surrounding area where he was hit, causing a lump.
Looking at the videos above and below, Bernard is moving all right through individual drills, but he can be seen making more effort to slow down at the very end. If this was the playoffs, they likely wrap the area to control swelling and possibly pad the area to protect it, but he could play.
Despite Sean McDermott noting on Monday that the Bills came out of Sunday’s win over the Jets pretty good, Bernard’s leg may have swollen up later or worsened in the days following the game. Considering this is essentially a bye week, it’s smart to let Bernard get the rest he needs, allow the body to heal, and he can return next week ready to go. This is something that will likely linger through the playoffs, but getting the rest and rehab now allows it to become less of a problem later on.
QUESTIONABLE
WR Curtis Samuel (Rib)
Samuel has missed the last two games with a rib injury dating back to Week 15 against the Detroit Lions when he fell trying to catch a pass late in the second quarter. He was able to return to the game and finish but has required the red non-contact jersey in practice since then. The team has likely taken the same approach to rehab the injury as they are doing with Damar Hamlin.
Considering how ineffective Samuel is, he hasn’t been missed. But McDermott noted that he is expected to return this week and with his return would allow other players to rest.
ACTIVE
S Taylor Rapp (Neck)
Rapp returned to play last week after missing the last two games with a neck injury dating back to Week 13 against the San Francisco 49ers. Considering the Bills played his former team, the Los Angeles Rams the following week, he may have gutted out the injury before taking the time to rest. He still requires the red non-contact jersey in practice intermittently including this week and could sit if the neck is still bothering him and if Hamlin does indeed play.
DB Cam Lewis (Right Shoulder)
Lewis is still working through a right shoulder injury picked up against the New England Patriots back in Week 16. He was also on the injury report prior to Week 10 with a shoulder, but it’s not clear if they are related. He is wearing a shoulder brace on the area under his pads, but outside of identifying which shoulder it is, it’s hard to determine the specific injury.
S Damar Hamlin (Rib)
Hamlin has missed the last three games after suffering a rib/back injury sometime during the Week 14 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. We know that the rib injury was more severe than the Bills had initially thought according to Joe Buscaglia of The Athletic. It was originally a back injury before they added the rib designation and then kept it only as a rib designation on the injury report.
I went back and looked through the Rams video and I don’t see where there are strong instances of where he injured the rib. He doesn’t get up slowly holding his back or chest, he doesn’t take a hard hit and misses snaps, it’s not apparent when he gets injured. At this point, he is likely dealing with either a rib fracture or cartilage damage that needs time to heal. Players usually return quicker after one to two games following rib injuries, returning with a flank jacket and getting an injection, but the Bills may be slow playing this to allow him to heal without having to play through the injury.
This may also be a way to allow Cole Bishop to see more snaps at safety and not have to bench Hamlin. Micah Hyde has been working with Bishop during practice and may see an increased role with McDermott hinting at the possibility. My friend, Dr. David Chao, (Pro Football Doc), likes to use the phrase “hiding behind injury”. This may be an example of that where Hamlin is dealing with a legitimate injury, but they are using the injury as an excuse to transition to Bishop moving forward.
McDermott also noted that they expect Hamlin back this week which would be ideal to get him ready for the playoffs but he may not return to his full workload.
QB Josh Allen (R Elbow/R Shoulder)
Allen has been on the injury report for the right elbow and right shoulder injury following hits he has taken over the past month. The right shoulder dates back to Week 15 against the Detroit Lions when he took two shots to the right shoulder falling as he extended plays. The right elbow was the result of hitting his funny bone back in Week 16 against the New England Patriots.
At this point, the shoulder is the more pressing issue, likely a mild AC joint sprain that requires maintenance. His elbow may still be sore but there is no structural damage to either the nerve or the UCL. Anytime a player is getting treatment, they are required to be placed on the injury report. Allen’s presence indicates he is still getting the best care possible to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs.
OT Spencer Brown (Neck)
Brown continues to require treatment on his neck following his injury dating back to the fourth quarter hit against the Detroit Lions. At the time, he was assessed for a head check but looked to potentially suffer a stinger. He may still require regular maintenance on his neck if he is having any residual pain during movement or if he has any radiculopathy or pain traveling down the arm.
He was massaging and grabbing the left side so if he does suffer another injury and is working out the shoulder, that may be a clue if that was an isolated or recurring incident. There’s no way to tell if this is a disc herniation or just the timing being this late in the season requiring more maintenance, but something to note should we get more information.
DT DeWayne Carter (Right Wrist)
Carter is still rehabbing from his right wrist surgery after originally tearing a ligament back in Week 7. He has seen his workload decrease recently and was even inactive in Week 16, but he should see a lot of playing time this week as they let other defensive linemen rest.
CB Rasul Douglas (Left Knee)
Douglas is still rehabbing from his left knee injury sustained against the Los Angeles Rams back in Week 14 as the result of Cooper Kupp falling on his leg in the end zone. He may be dealing with an MCL sprain, the same knee that he battled through in the playoffs last year. You can see that he has some type of brace or tape under the knee for support during pre-game warmups, confirming the side.
TE Dalton Kincaid (Left Knee)
Kincaid is still wearing the hinged knee brace to protect his left knee following his PCL sprain dating back to Week 10 against the Indianapolis Colts. He was able to practice in full all week.
P Sam Martin (Back)
Martin is still requiring treatment for his back for the last two weeks. He did not have any notable hits or concerning movements in the Patriots game in Week 16, but I mentioned last week how he could be dealing with some sacroiliac (SI) joint pain due to the single leg hopping he has to do. This is unfortunately common in positions such as his and while it is not confirmed, this is something that rehab, adjustments, and a good warm-up can manage.
LB Matt Milano (Left Biceps/Groin)
Milano returned to play last week after suffering a groin strain against the Patriots in Week 16. He played in a season-low 56 percent of snaps and was mainly on the field for first and second downs.
Normally I would recommend that Milano sits in this game, but with Bernard being out, he needs the reps to get up to speed for the playoffs. He has been improving throughout the last month but still has room to improve.
For a more detailed breakdown of Milano’s game so far, make sure to check out Cover 1’s analysis of Milano below.
TE Quintin Morris (Right Shoulder/Groin)
Morris is still dealing with the torn labrum in his right shoulder from the preseason that requires regular rehab. I believe he has been playing without his shoulder harness on recently which indicates that his shoulder is stable enough to allow him to block and catch passes without instability events. As for his groin, he has been dealing with that dating back to Week 13 which forced him to miss one game.
DT Jordan Phillips (Back)
Phillips is still working through a back injury dating back to Week 16. He has a history of back issues in 2021 and 2023 and this appears to be the latest episode. He has not missed any practice or games but is requiring regular treatment to be ready.
DE Dawuane Smoot (Right Wrist)
Smoot is still working his way back from his right wrist surgery in which he tore two ligaments in his wrist playing against the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. He still has to wear a brace on the area but the wrist is still not 100 percent.
LB Dorian Williams (Left Elbow)
Williams still requires the use of a hinged elbow brace after suffering what looked to be a hyperextended elbow against the Detroit Lions back in Week 15. He has continued to play well even with the elbow braced up and should see a lot of snaps this Sunday.
WR Amari Cooper (Back)
Cooper was a late addition to the injury report this week with a back designation as the result of hitting his tailbone on his touchdown catch as observed below.
Considering his age and time in the season, it only makes sense to let him rest to get ready for the playoffs. His left wrist would also benefit from taking a week off as he still has to wear a cast on the area following the Week 8 injury that forced him to miss the following two games.
New England Patriots Injury Report
Update:
OUT
C Ben Brown (Concussion)
Brown was unable to practice all week and will now miss his second consecutive game after suffering concussion symptoms after the Week 16 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He was able to play in every snap that game but likely suffered a hit that prompted delayed symptoms.
CB Christian Gonzalez (Concussion)
Gonzalez was unable to practice all week due to a concussion suffered on Sunday. This was the result of attempting to tackle Ladd McConkey with 13:47 left in the second quarter. Gonzalez hit his head on McConkey’s hip and went down before exiting the game.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk (Shoulder)
Polk will miss Sunday’s game after suffering what appears to be a right AC joint sprain on his only target in the game. This happened with 5:37 left in the fourth quarter which resulted in Polk not securing the catch and landing on his right shoulder, grabbing at it in discomfort.
S Jabrill Peppers (Hamstring)
Peppers has missed the last two games with his hamstring injury dating back to Week 13 and will now miss his third.
QUESTIONABLE
S Kyle Dugger (Ankle/Quadricep)
Dugger has been battling his high-ankle sprain dating back to the beginning of the season and has minimal time. He picked up a quadriceps injury against the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 but played in 96 percent of defensive snaps last week.
TE Hunter Henry (Foot)
Henry was limited at practice all week with a foot injury and played in a season-low 30 percent of snaps.
LB Anfernee Jennings (Knee)
Jennings continues to battle through a chronic knee injury that he has dealt with the majority of the season but still plays his normal number of snaps.
LB Titus Leo (Ankle)
Leo suffered an ankle injury in practice on Thursday or Friday before Week 17 but suited up playing exclusively on special teams with 25 snaps.
QB Drake Maye (Right Hand)
Maye is questionable after suffering a right hand /finger injury at some point during Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots coaching staff has come out repeatedly and stated that if a player is healthy, they will play. This comes down to how well Maye is able to grip the football and protect himself.
LB Sione Takitaki (Knee)
Takitaki has been battling his knee injury dating back to the preseason that started off with a knee scope that never truly appeared to get fully healthy.
ACTIVE
S Brenden Schooler (Abdomen)
Schooler was a new addition to the injury report with an abdomen issue.
LB Jahlani Tavai (Groin)
Tavai is still dealing with his groin injury dating back to Week 15 but has played his normal snap counts each week.
OT Caedan Wallace (Ankle)
Wallace was finally activated last week off of injured reserve following his placement there back on October 4. He was able to appear in 28 percent of offensive snaps and 4 percent of special teams snaps.
WR Kayshon Boutte (Illness)
Boutte missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness but returned to a full designation on Thursday and Friday.
INJURED RESERVE
LB Curtis Jacobs (Concussion)
Jacobs is designated to return from IR after being placed on injured reserve back after Week 11 and has been able to practice in full.
Buffalo Bills Projected Inactives
LB Terrel Bernard
WR Amari Cooper
DT Ed Oliver
DE Greg Rousseau
WR Khalil Shakir
CB Rasul Douglas
C Connor McGovern
Call Ups: OL Will Clapp, WR KJ Hamler
New England Patriots Projected Inactives
S Jabrill Peppers
CB Christian Gonzalez
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
C Ben Brown
RB Terrell Jennings
Final Thoughts
Complete the game win or lose and get out healthy. That is the only objective of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Nothing else matters. The moment a player gets dinged up, pull him out. If there is a healthy player to play, put him in.
The only remaining incentives for any players to play are for contract incentives. Looking at the contract incentives list, the following players could realistically reach several statistical benchmarks which could earn them extra money.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/incentives
Von Miller- needs one sack to earn $4 million
Taron Johnson- needs one interception to earn $250,000
Dawson Knox- needs 8 receptions to earn $100,000, needs 89 yards to earn $100,000
DaQuan Jones- needs .5 sacks to earn $250,000
AJ Epenesa- needs 60 percent of season defensive snaps played to earn $350,000, currently at 58.8 percent, needs 2 sacks to earn $1 million
Taylor Rapp- needs 1 interception to earn $150,000
Sam Martin- needs 1 punt inside the 20 to earn $200,000
Cam Lewis- needs 60 percent of defensive snaps to earn $450,000, currently at 56.4 percent
Mack Hollins- needs 2 receptions to earn $50,000, needs 72 yards to earn $200,000
Dawuane Smoot- needs 40 percent of season defensive snaps to earn $400,000, currently at 38.8 percent, needs 1.5 sacks to earn $250,000
Josh Allen- needs to start to maintain his consecutive games started streak
James Cook- needs 1 touchdown to tie the franchise rushing touchdown record, 2 to break it (16, 1973 OJ Simpson)
This game may not mean much in the standings other than with a win, this would set the franchise regular season record for wins at 14. Regardless of the outcome, there are bigger fish to fry starting next week. Let’s hope every player gets out healthy and prepare for next week.
Top Photo Credit: Buffalo Rumblings
