One of the biggest targets on the trade market is Browns DE Myles Garrett after he requested a trade out of Cleveland. Ever since he dropped that news, nearly every fanbase in the league has fantasized about his presence on the team and crunched the numbers to determine if it’s feasible.
Garret is a bonafide future Hall of Famer and adding a talent of that magnitude to the team can help elevate a team to that next level. The team that ultimately trades for him will be forced to give up a lot of capital and pay him top of the market for what could be his final contract. He is looking for an exclamation point for his career with a Super Bowl Championship.
Today’s article breaks down the injury history of Myles Garrett and any potential concerns should the Buffalo Bills be successful in trading for the pass rusher.
Injury History
2017 Cleveland Browns
Left foot sprain, OTA’s.
Right High-ankle sprain, prior to Week 1, missed 4 games.
Concussion, Week 7, missed 1 game.
Miller suffered a foot sprain during OTA’s but was not out long. He then suffered a right high-ankle sprain when the team was practicing prior to Week 1 and he had a teammate fall onto his leg. Miller then self reported concussion symptoms after the Week 7 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
2018 Browns
No publicly reported injuries.
2019 Browns
No publicly reported injuries.
2020 Browns
Ankle injury, Week 7, missed 0 games.
Knee injury, Week 8, missed 0 games.
COVID, Week 11, missed 2 games.
Shoulder injury, Week 17, missed 0 games.
Garrett suffered an ankle injury in Week 7 followed by a knee injury on the first play in Week 8 but had the bye week to recover. Garrett contracted COVID and missed two games which worsened due to his asthma. Finally, Garrett dealt with a shoulder injury and was questionable heading into the Wild Card contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
2021 Browns
Knee, ankle injuries, Week 4, missed 0 games.
Foot injury, Week 6, missed 0 games.
Groin injury, Week 15, missed 0 games.
Garrett battled knee and ankle injuries early in the season and followed up with a nagging groin injury late in the season.
2022 Browns
Neck Injury, Week 2, missed 0 games.
Car accident, Left Shoulder, Biceps, lacerations, Week 4, missed 1 game.
Dislocated right big toe, Pro Bowl.
Garret was involved in a single-car accident after leaving practice prior to Week 4. He suffered a left AC joint sprain, biceps strain, and several lacerations, forcing him to miss the next game. He was able to stay healthy throughout the remainder of the season before he played in the Pro Bowl games where he dislocated his toe on the obstacle course.
2023 Browns
Left Shoulder, Week 12, missed 0 games.
Left Shoulder/hamstring, Week 18, missed 1 game.
Garrett suffered an aggravation of his left shoulder injury back in Week 12 when he felt a pop and had to leave the locker room in a sling. He then missed Week 18 as he battled his shoulder injury along with having a sore hamstring in practice that week.
2024 Browns
Thigh, Achilles, bilateral foot injuries, Week 3, missed 0 games.
Garrett was listed on the injury report prior to Week 4 due to thigh, Achilles, and bilateral foot injuries, the latter which could have required surgery. It appears that the foot injuries could have been plantar fasciitis which can become chronic and linger, eventually requiring surgery.
Injury Analysis
Playing for eight seasons is going to cause several injuries as highlighted above. Several of the injuries such as the high-ankle sprain, concussion, knee, and groin injuries appear to be one-off issues that he battled through during the long seasons.
Some of the more notable injuries include the bilateral foot injuries from this past season, his dislocated right big toe, feet issues, and left shoulder injuries appear to be the biggest concerns.
His big toe dislocation was caused when his toe hit a wall during the obstacle course during the Pro Bowl games in February that year which required assistance to reduce. In April of that year, he said that it was still nagging him but appeared to be resolved as he did not appear to be on the injury report since then. The fact that he did not have surgery either indicates he did not significantly tear any ligaments or tear the plantar plate.
His bilateral foot issues from this past season sound like this was plantar fasciitis based on the fact this occurred in both feet and could eventually require surgery. This is a chronic issue that is pain-limiting and can be managed conservatively. This wouldn’t stop any team from signing him but they may want to be proactive and limit his workload as he ages to ensure that he could be ready for Sundays.
His left shoulder has been injured three different times with several reports indicating that this was an AC joint sprain. His most recent shoulder injury Garrett stated that the shoulder “popped” which could have been a subluxation or just another aggravation of the AC joint.
Even with a chronic AC Joint sprain, there is mainly residual pain that is the primary limitation. Surgery could eventually be indicated to stabilize the joint but that doesn’t appear to be the case for Garrett right now. This would be the biggest concern I have with trading for Garrett to ensure there isn’t any lasting damage that could cause him further missed time.
As long as his left shoulder and feet check out, there isn’t too much that I see that could linger. He doesn’t have any major injuries any of the injuries that have taken longer to heal were out of precaution.
Declining Production
Garrett’s 17-game average over his career is impressive with 14 quarterback hurries, 14 quarterback knockdowns, 15.5 sacks, and 45 pressures. All top-of-the-league numbers that show why he is a frequent All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection.
Despite these excellent numbers, Garrett is older though still productive. Mike Sando of The Athletic made an excellent observation in his Pick Six column recently about some of the risks with Garrett as he’s getting older. The natural assumption is that a player peaks in production and then begins to slowly decline as they get older and most players follow that trend.
Sando compared the top defensive linemen with at least 4 All-Pro selections between the fourth and eighth years of their careers by comparing their Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value. The next comparison was looking at the AV during years nine through eleven. There was a wide variety of decline but nearly every player declined except for Randy White of the Cowboys.
Other players like Reggie White and Bob Lilly saw minor declines while most began to drop off steadily. Garrett is among the best of this group but several players including Carl Eller, Warren Sapp, and Alan Page saw notable drop-offs through those next few years. Reggie White was the exception where he did see a drop off but his decline was still better than most of his contemporaries.
Garrett has two years left on his contract and will likely be looking for one final contract before he retires. Will he begin to fall off as he enters his 30’s or will he maintain his level for a few more years?
When the Bills signed Von Miller, he was two years removed from his last Pro Bowl selection and three years from his second-team All-Pro selection. While he wasn’t at his best, he was still solid and it was a great signing until he got injured. Garrett comes in younger and more productive than Miller, but he could begin to decline as well.
There are always risks in trading or signing a player, but the decision has to be made considering the remaining longevity, contract, and production. At some point, Garrett won’t be worth the money he is paid. Right now, he is underpaid compared to his contemporaries at $25 million AAV.
The Bills have to consider the present and the future including whether they would want to extend Garrett or whether they need to extend Greg Rousseau if he isn’t traded. Rousseau is expected to make a lot of money when he gets extended and the Bills would need to prioritize where the money should be allocated.
Final Thoughts
Should the Bills trade for Myles Garrett? Looking at the costs of his current contract, his injury history, and production, yes.
Should they trade for and extend him as part of the deal since? I wouldn’t right now. The Bills got themselves into a hole because Von Miller got hurt which no one could have planned for.
The Bills would be best to trade for him, maximize his skill set for the next two years, and then revisit any contract discussion. Anything past that right now would be short-sighted.
I hope that the Bills won’t be afraid to take another swing and bring in an elite pass rusher to help get the team over the hump.
Top Photo Credit: Dawgs By Nature
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