Terrel Bernard was a curious draft pick when he was selected in the third round of the 2022 NFL draft. Not much was known about him and he didn’t do much his first year seeing time only on special teams.
Adding to his mystery, a hamstring strain that kept him out of all of the 2023 training camp preventing a true look as to what player he really was. But this didn’t stop him from improving to one of the more important defenders on the team in his second season. Bernard has battled injuries throughout his college and professional career but has shown he can still be effective. He appears to be an ascending player and the Bills could capitalize with a reasonable contract extension.
Today’s article analyzes Bernard’s injury history, what a potential price range may be, and whether he would be worth signing.
Injury History
College
For a complete college injury history, please click here.
NFL
2022 Buffalo Bills
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Bills
Hamstring, preseason, missed entire preseason.
Left knee/quad injury, Week 2, missed 0 games.
Right knee injury, Week 6, missed 0 games.
Concussion, Week 9, missed 0 games.
Right ankle injury, Week 16, missed 0 games.
Right ankle injury, Wild Card, missed 1 game.
2024 Bills
Undisclosed injury/Back injury, preseason.
Left Pectoral strain, Week 2, missed 2 games.
Right ankle, Week 7, missed 1 game.
Left quad, Week 17, missed 1 game.
Injury Analysis
Bernard has outplayed his draft position and despite all his injuries, he has still shown the ability to perform at a high level once he’s returned. I wasn’t a huge fan of his injury concerns when he was drafted but he has proven why the team selects players with excellent traits but injury concerns in the third round and later. It has paid off for Spencer Brown and now Terrel Bernard.
He missed 17 total games over 5 seasons during his time at Baylor. He has missed 5 games over 3 seasons in the NFL with most of them coming this past year. His physical style of play and smaller frame has led to increased injury issues but he has still shown to be effective.
Looking at any potential concerns, he had left knee surgery back in college to trim his meniscus. He also had his right knee injury in 2023 that didn’t require surgery that we know of but there was concern for a meniscus tear there as well.
He also has had several injuries to his right ankle which started during the last few games of the 2023 season. He ended up subluxing the ankle during the 2023 playoffs which means there was considerable ligament damage that fortunately did not require surgery. At this point, his ankle likely has chronic laxity which means it could sublux again but would not cause as much damage. He may eventually require surgery on the area but he has shown he can rehab the area and still be effective.
The team knows how Bernard’s medical history looks with most of the other injuries being one-off issues such as the pectoral strain, quad contusions, and concussion.
He is certainly worthy of a contract extension but the biggest concerns I’d have are how do his knees look, how does his right ankle look, and are there any progressive changes in his left shoulder from college when he suffered complex damage requiring surgery. If everything looks good and nothing is degenerative, then this provides a vote of confidence.
Bernard’s injury history is all about the culmination of injuries rather than one singular injury. His running mate, Matt Milano was also frequently injured during his first few years before suffering his right leg fracture and left biceps tear.
The demands of the position certainly factor into his injury history but the biggest concern is whether Bernard will reach that breaking point as well. The one upside is that Bernard has shown consistency in managing the various injuries and still performing at a high level. He also knows what it takes to rehab back to form and play effectively at less than 100 percent.
Market Value
This one is hard to figure out from a financial standpoint. Spotrac has him valued at $6.7 million AAV while Over The Cap somehow has him valued at $3.3 million AAV. I believe that Bernard is worth more than that.
When Matt Milano signed his initial contract, he signed for $10 million AAV. The cap has increased significantly and a contract signed in 2021 is not worth the same in 2025. I could see the Bills structure a contract that allows Bernard to take over as top linebacker from a financial perspective as they phase out Matt Milano as he gets older.
However, looking at the linebacker contracts, $6.7 million may be realistic given his younger age and lack of individual accolades. Many of the players above him money wise are perennial All-Pro and Pro Bowl players.
If the Bills can sign Bernard for either price listed, I believe they are getting a great deal even at the $6.7 million. Bernard’s contract should ideally have some flexibility worked into account for his injury issues which have followed him throughout his career.
Final Thoughts
Bernard’s play currently outweighs his injury concerns. This does not mean that there is no risk in extending him, but the Bills can certainly get their money’s worth out of him and he still appears to be ascending as a player.
I could see him getting a three or four year extension with the money front loaded to then allow the Bills to get out of the contract later if Bernard’s body begins to break down. This extension could either be an excellent value in a year or two if he continues to perform and stay healthy. He could also suffer more injuries and the culmination of those injuries begin to take their toll.
This is a solid extension right now but it has to be structured in a way to help Bernard get paid but not keep the Bills on the hook long term in case things go south. He has been playing well after earning the starting job in 2023 and should be rewarded accordingly.
Hopefully we see the terms of an extension soon and Bernard can cash in on two years of excellent play.
Top Photo Credit: Associated Press
Discover more from Banged Up Bills
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
