Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: How Have They Performed Against the Spread?

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The Buffalo Bills have built a reputation as one of the most dominant teams in the NFL, but their performance against the spread (ATS) tells an even more interesting story. For bettors, understanding how a team performs relative to oddsmakers’ expectations is just as important as their win-loss record. 

The Bills have not only been consistent on the field but have also shown patterns that make them a strong consideration for betting lines. Their ATS trends reveal a lot about their ability to cover spreads, whether they are favorites or underdogs.

The 2024 Season and ATS Performance

The Bills finished the 2024 season with an impressive 13-4 record, their best since the NFL adopted the 17-game format in 2021. This success extended beyond straight-up wins, as they also delivered strong results for bettors. 

Over their last 20 games, they posted a 12-8 ATS record, covering 60% of the time. This level of consistency makes them a reliable option in the betting world.

Their offensive firepower was a significant factor in their ability to cover spreads. The team averaged 31.8 points per game, making it one of the highest-scoring offenses in NFL history. Their ability to consistently put up points helped them cover spreads even when favored by significant margins. 

Given their strong ATS record, bettors frequently looked to an Online Sportsbook to track line movements and find the best odds on Bills matchups throughout the season. A clear understanding of their scoring ability made it easier to anticipate how they would perform relative to the spread.

Turnovers also played a massive role in their ATS success. The Bills set a record for ball security, committing only eight turnovers throughout the season. That kind of discipline limited opponents’ scoring opportunities and allowed the team to maintain control in games where they were expected to dominate. A team that protects the ball this well tends to be a safer bet, mainly when covering spreads as favorites.

Breaking Down Key ATS Trends

Several patterns stood out when analyzing how the Bills performed against the spread. Their ability to win convincingly meant they often covered in games where they were heavily favored. Even in close matchups, their strong offensive and defensive performances made them a competitive pick.

At home, the Bills were a solid bet, frequently covering against teams that struggled in challenging environments. However, their performance on the road was just as notable. They covered the spread in several challenging away games, including a dominant 31-10 win over Seattle as 3-point favorites. That level of reliability away from home made them one of the safer road teams to bet on.

Being favored in most matchups, the Bills often faced high sportsbook expectations. While they thrived in many cases, there were moments when spreads were simply too large to overcome. 

One example was their game against Arizona, where they were favored by 6.5 points but only won 34-28, narrowly missing the cover. Even dominant teams struggle to cover massive spreads consistently, but the Bills managed to do so more often than not. Analyzing trends like these through FanDuel Research provides deeper insight into how teams perform relative to betting lines, helping bettors make more informed decisions.

High-scoring games were another defining trend. Their explosive offense led to totals frequently surpassing projections. A prime example was their 42-44 loss to the Rams, which far exceeded the expected total of 50 points. For bettors who favor the over, games involving Buffalo were often a great option.

How the Betting Market Views the Bills

The Bills’ success against the spread wasn’t just noticed by oddsmakers. It also shaped betting behaviors. Fans and bettors alike placed heavy trust in the team’s ability to cover, sometimes leading to inflated spreads. 

The enthusiasm surrounding the Bills, particularly among their fanbase, meant that betting lines sometimes reflected more public sentiment than objective analysis.

In a Week 16 matchup against New England, 81% of bettors believed the Bills would cover a 9.5-point spread. The widespread confidence in Buffalo’s ability to win big often led to intense betting action in their favor. While this wasn’t always a guarantee for covering, it showed the public’s faith in the team’s performance.

Compared to other top NFL teams, the Bills’ 60% ATS cover rate put them among the league’s best. Their consistency ranked alongside teams like the Steelers and Ravens, who also covered over 60% of the time. A team that regularly meets or exceeds expectations set by sportsbooks is a valuable betting option, and Buffalo proved they belonged in that category.

Final Thoughts

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the most consistent teams in the NFL, both in terms of winning games and covering the spread. As the next season unfolds, monitoring their performance against the spread will be as important as watching their win-loss record. A team with this level of consistency offers exciting possibilities for bettors looking to capitalize on the right opportunities. Whether they continue their dominance or face new challenges, one thing is sure—Buffalo remains a team to watch in the betting world.

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