Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl Odds: Contenders for the Big Game?

It’s been a decade of playoff heartbreak in Buffalo, but the Super Bowl window hasn’t slammed shut just yet. They head into the 2025 season with a roster that’s been hardened by postseason battles and offseason shakeups. Critics expected turbulence after several veterans moved on, but the team didn’t skip a beat in 2024.

Much of the confidence stems from continuity under center. The heartbeat of Buffalo’s push for a championship stems from Josh Allen entering the upcoming campaign as the reigning MVP, alongside a solid cast of playmakers, a dependable offensive line, and a defense determined to flip the postseason narrative. 

Let’s explore the key factors behind Buffalo’s current status as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Josh Allen’s MVP Season Sets the Tone

Buffalo’s success starts with Josh Allen, who posted an MVP campaign that showcased his continued growth as a franchise quarterback. He threw  for 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns, added 531 rushing yards with 12 scores, and maintained a paster rating near 99. His 63.6% rate marked a steady progression in accuracy and decision-making compared to earlier years. 

The live betting buzz around Buffalo became better as Allen kept raising the ceiling. Von Miller didn’t shy away from bold statements, urging fans and bettors should pay close attention to live odds. He argued the Bills can still flip the narrative as long as they have Allen, whose five-season streak of 40+ total touchdowns remains unmatched in NFL history. 

Roster Turnover Didn’t Derail Momentum 

There were real concerns surrounding Buffalo’s depth after key players like Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde parted ways. Media narratives pushed the idea that the “championship window” was closing fast, with so much uncertainty on both sides of the ball. Yet the Buffalo entered the 2024 season determined to silence those doubts and finished with double-digit wins for a sixth straight year. 

Veteran edge rusher Von Miller claimed that the team is not going to rebuild but instead run the AFC East. That confidence mirrored the locker room’s mentality as the Bills purchased another division crown, which they locked up in Week 13. Despite the turnover at wide receiver, Buffalo kept its identity intact, thanks to Allen’s leadership and new contributors who didn’t shy away from the spotlight. 

Postseason Pressure Remains the Hurdle

Buffalo’s journey through January continues to be a sticking point. Last season’s AFC Championship game against Kansas City was another gut punch, as the Bills held the ball late in the fourth quarter but failed to tie or win in a narrow 32–29 loss. That marked the fifth straight year of playoff elimination, with four of those exits coming courtesy of the Chiefs.

Defensively, the numbers paint a troubling picture. Buffalo has surrendered an average of 33.2 points per game across its last five postseason defeats, often struggling to apply pressure or force turnovers. Despite the talent on paper, opponents have consistently moved the ball and controlled the tempo when it mattered most. Turning those late-game stops into momentum-shifting plays is non-negotiable if Buffalo wants to raise the Lombardi Trophy.

Offseason Additions Could Tip the Scale

The front office didn’t still after another playoff disappointment. Buffalo added Joey Bosa and Joey Palmer from the Chargers, each bringing toughness and experience to a roster that needed depth. Bosa’s passing-rushing ability could be critical in high-stakes moments, while Palmer can add a reliable receiving option alongside the rising star Khalil Shakir and rookie Keon Coleman. 

Concerns still linger regarding the perimeter talent and corner depth, especially in big matchups against elite quarterbacks. Even so, the Bills invested heavily in defensive draft picks. With veterans like Gregory Rousseau, Dorian Williams, and Terrel Bernard returning with key roles, the team’s collective expectation is clear: stop the postseason bleeding and take control when the light gets brightest. 

Favorable Schedule and AFC East Dominance

Buffalo’s path back to the postseason is paved with opportunity. Six of its first seven opponents in 2025 missed the playoffs last year, which gives the Bills a chance to stack wins early. They’ve claimed five straight AFC East titles and posted an 11-2 record in games where they were favored on the moneyline. FanDuel Research and other reliable sources show their win total against the spread last season stands at 10-7. 

In many interviews, Von Miller didn’t hold back when reflecting on media skepticism. Many times, he pointed out that almost everyone wrote them off and claimed they weren’t supposed to win the division. But Buffalo’s locker room never doubted its place atop the AFC East. With Allen coming off an MVP season, and the roster showing a mix of battle-tested veterans and emerging talent, the odds factor in another strong regular season run. The real goal, though, still lies in what happens after Week 18.

Time to Close the Gap

Buffalo is now chasing closure. The franchise has made six consecutive playoff appearances, with no AFC titles to show for it. The comparisons to Andy Reid’s early years with the Eagles aren’t far-fetched, as head coach Sean McDermott continues to hover near greatness. The roster isn’t perfect, but the answer to the question is clear: yes, the Buffalo Bills are true contenders for the big game in 2025.