The Buffalo Bills take on the New England Patriots in one of the biggest games over the last few years as they battle for the AFC East divisional crown in Week 15. The Bills come in at 9-4 while the Patriots are 11-2 and winners of 10 straight games.
With a Bills win, they prevent the Patriots from clinching the AFC East and would need one more loss by the Patriots to win the division. As for the Patriots, they simply need to win Sunday to clinch the division. This appears to the closest the Bills and Patriots have been since 2021 when it comes to battling for the division when the Bills finished 11-6 and the Patriots finished 10-7 after splitting their games that season.
Both teams are virtually guaranteed playoffs but seeding will be incredibly important when it comes to home field advantage and who each other draw as opponents, potentially including each other.
Read below for a full analysis of each injury report and projected inactives.
BUFFALO BILLS INJURY REPORT
QUESTIONABLE
CB Christian Benford (Left Toe)
Benford popped up on the injury report Thursday with a left toe designation after being spotted in a surgical shoe following a limited designation at practice.
Per many on the beat, he was walking fine and was moving well during the media portion of practice. This injury could be a lot of things. He could have kicked something and jammed it. He could have been stepped on, he could have suffered a turf toe injury. There’s even the possibility he strained one of the muscles in his foot that connects to the toe. It’s assumed that this is the big toe that he injured but the other toes are certainly in play here. If it’s the smaller toes, there’s not a lot they can do other than support the area. If it’s the big toe, then they can put a carbon plate in the shoe to limit hyperextension of the toe, they can get him a stiffer shoe to provide support, they may also have some taping techniques to reduce motion at the area and prevent aggravation.
On Friday, we saw him walking on the practice field walking in a regular shoe with some potentially minor pain, but a step in the right direction
Here’s what the data says on how the Bills have managed toe injuries since 2017.
Those with a toe injury on the Bills injury report missed .71 games, was on injury report for 1.57 weeks from 2017-2024.
4 toe injuries in practice known since 2017:
2024 DE Dawaune Smoot
2023 DE Shaq Lawson
2021 DT Star Lotulelei
2019 WR Isaiah McKenzie
Only McKenzie played that week.
It’s notable that all three that missed were defensive lineman that need to push through their toes and drive forward versus a sprinting position like wide receiver.
Looking at practice reports where there’s a practice injury and whether they have a questionable designation, it’s a 51/49 split if they don’t play when they suffer a practice injury. There were 31 instances.
Breaking it down further looking at soft tissue vs joint, it’s roughly 56% out. There were 16 instances.
This is truly a coin flip whether Benford goes on Sunday. It may come down to how he feels and if there is a chance he can worsen the issue.
Based on his veteran status, what he means to the team, and competitiveness, I’ll lean that he plays but that they have a strong game plan should he exit.
LB Terrel Bernard (Right Elbow)
Bernard returned to practice this week after missing the last two weeks due to a right elbow injury against the Houston Texans in Week 12.
I had initially thought that he suffered a hyperextension based on how he was hit, but FOX sideline reporter Pam Oliver reported that he was dealing with a dislocated elbow.
This timeline carries an average of 25 days missed for defensive players. This would put Bernard at 24 days at Week 15. He has been wearing a left elbow brace to provide medial/lateral support and prevent hyperextension at practice this week and appears to potentially return soon.
If he does play, he will still have some difficulty shedding blocker, engaging blocks on the right side, and wrapping up tackles, being forced to use more of his left side. The team may elect to either keep active as an emergency option and activate him or sit him out one more week.
WR Joshua Palmer (Left Ankle)
Palmer continues to work through his left high-ankle sprain suffered originally back in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons as seen below.
He missed three games before returning in Week 11 and 12 and suffered some type of setback ahead of Week 13 with his ankle, forcing him to miss the last two games. Palmer was interviewed on Wednesday and he seemed rather despondent in his discussion as he returns from injury.
The ankle injury has lingered far longer than anyone would want and has impacted his ability to not only be available, but be productive as he’s only gotten four receptions for 38 yards in the two game return. This ankle may need a Tightrope procedure in the offseason to allow it to heal properly if there is continued instability. Until then, Palmer has continued to work to rehab and get back for the final stretch of games.
ACTIVE
TE Dalton Kincaid (Left Knee)
After missing the last three games after injuring his right hamstring against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. He appeared on the injury report last week with a left knee injury which appeared to be an aggravation of his left knee from last year.
He has been wearing his left knee brace and sleeve last week and this week indicating that this will be a lingering issue for likely the rest of the season. He played fairly well dealing with the more acute knee issue but I’m not going to be alarmed if he’s on the injury report the rest of the season.
Surgery may be indicated as well at some point especially with how long this knee has given him issues. Fortunately, he does not have any designation this week.
DE Joey Bosa (Left Hamstring/Left Wrist)
Bosa returned to practice this week after missing last week’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a left hamstring strain.
The concern was that he was week-to-week with a wide timeline of 1-2 weeks versus 4-5 weeks. Missing last week was not a surprise but this week was very much in question. I had initially thought he would miss this week as well, but his practice participation especially Thursday, said otherwise.
This slow motion video below of Bosa bending the edge and pushing off his left leg which frankly surprised me.
Despite having no game day designation, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bosa is still on a pitch count. When he suffered a hamstring strain in Week 1 of the 2023 season, the Chargers had him on what looked to be a pitch count playing in 29 percent of snaps in Week 2 and 34 percent in Week 3. During those two games, he got 3 sacks, 4 pressures, 5 tackles, and 1 quarterback hurry.
Bosa has done this before and those are solid numbers, healthy or not. Let’s hope that he is truly healthy and can get out there to create some disruptions.
S Cole Bishop (Calf)
Bishop is officially on the injury report this week with a calf designation though this was related more to his cramping he dealt with in the fourth quarter. The area was still likely sore from Sunday but he was able to practice in full all week.
OT Spencer Brown (Right Shoulder)
Brown appears to be ready to get back on the field after missing the last two games due to a right shoulder injury suffered in the loss to the Houston Texans in Week 12.
By video, there is a concern for a right labrum tear. He has been wearing a shoulder harness on his right shoulder in practice the last two weeks as he ramps back up. On Wednesday, he stated that he would be ready to go for Sunday.
He was close last week before the team ultimately shut him down in favor of Ryan Van Demark to get his second start, his first at right tackle.
TE Dawson Knox (Personal)
Knox missed Wednesday’s walk through due to a personal issue but was able to return to practice Thursday and Friday.
QB Mitchell Trubisky (Illness)
Trubisky was unable to practice on Thursday due to illness but returned in full on Friday.
Other Observations
FB Reggie Gilliam (Groin)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS INJURY REPORT
OUT
RB Terrell Jennings (Concussion)
Jennings continues to work through a concussion suffered against the New York Giants in the second quarter in Week 13 with one minute left in the first quarter. This was the result of trying to help with a tackle and the back of his head hit a fellow teammate, #33 as he went down. He was forced to leave and placed in the concussion protocol.
He was unable to practice all week and was ruled out Friday.
Update: Jennings has been placed on injured reserve.
QUESTIONABLE
LB Robert Spillane (Foot)
Spillane was a new addition to the injury report this week with a foot designation. He normally plays 100 percent of snaps but only played in 69 percent of snaps in Week 13.
During Monday’s practice, he was limited without a designation at the time but is now clearly working through something. He was limited Thursday and Friday and officially questionable. Considering the injury popped up on Thursday, that may be a tough turnaround to go on Sunday.
ACTIVE
DT Khyiris Tonga (Chest)
Tonga missed the Week 13 contest against the New York Giants after this play against the Cincinnati Bengals where he was drilled in the right side of the chest up high. This occurred with 8:54 left in the second quarter.
He managed to stay for five more plays through the end of second quarter before he was forced to exit the game. The last several plays showed him having difficulty using his right arm but still able to engage his blocks. Considering where he was hit, he may be dealing with bruised ribs or a contusion which can certainly be painful but not have long term issues. With the bye week off, he appears on track to play.
G Jared Wilson (Right High-Ankle Sprain)
Wilson appeared to suffer a right high-ankle sprain that was later confirmed in media reports with 13:38 left in the first quarter in the game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
If you watch the video below, Wilson is #58 and appears to get his right ankle stepped on by what looks like to be a Bengals defensive lineman.
He can be seen hopping around before he is forced to exit. He was forced to miss the Week 13 contest against the New York Giants but appears on track to return this week. Considering he plays offensive line and has to anchor and block, he can get the ankle taped up and keep the weight through the heel and toe rather than having the ankle twist and pivot which would aggravate the still healing joint.
S Brenden Schooler (Left Ankle)
Schooler was spotted in a left walking boot following the win over the Cincinnati Bengals after he suffered what appeared to be a left high-ankle sprain seen below. This play happened with 14:19 left in the second quarter.
Watch #41 on kickoff, he also got stepped on and rolls out of the pile of his bodies, grabbing at his left ankle.
He was able to return to practice this week and with his playing exclusively on special teams, he won’t be stressing the ankle as often and can gut through every play despite the ankle injury.
LB Harold Landry (Knee)
Landry has been battling a knee injury dating back to Week 11 after playing the New York Jets. He hasn’t been wearing any sleeves or braces on either knee since then which makes it hard to discern what the issue is.
He did have a right ACL tear in 2022 which could be contributing to his knee complaints if the knee is beginning to feel arthritic. This appears to be more of a maintenance issue during the week as he has not missed a game yet this season. He did not practice Thursday but returned in full on Friday.
OT Verderian Lowe (Abdomen)
Lowe was the only new addition to the injury report this week with an abdominal injury. He got his first start of the season against the New York Giants in Week 13 and played 100 percent of snaps. He has no designation and will play.
Buffalo Bills Projected Inactives
OL Chase Lundt
LB Terrel Bernard
S Darnell Savage
DT Phidarian Mathis
OT Tylan Grable
WR Keon Coleman
Call Up: DE Andre Jones Jr
New England Patriots Projected Inactives
RB Terrell Jennings
LB Robert Spillane
TE CJ Dippre
QB Tommy DiVito
OT Marcus Bryant
Final Thoughts
This game is incredibly important for each team, that part is obvious. You have a flawed Bills team not wanting to relinquish the division while you have an upstart Patriots team taking advantage of their schedule to jump back up to the top of the mountain. Each team can only play the teams on their schedule and the results speak for themselves at this point.
The Patriots have the injury advantage when you compare the injury reports on paper with Harold Landry the biggest question mark. But they are missing their top offensive tackle in Will Campbell with a right knee MCL sprain and DT Milton Williams with a left high-ankle sprain, both currently on injured reserve. Add in the other injuries on the offensive line in Wilson and reserve lineman Lowe.
The Bills are certainly missing key contributors in DT Michael Hoecht and DT Dewayne Carter with Achilles tears, DT Ed Oliver with a left biceps tear, and current injuries to Bosa, Palmer, Brown, Benford, and Bernard.
This game will come down to individual battles and scheme. Both teams have great and experienced coaching staffs with talent on both sides of the ball. This won’t necessarily come down to who makes less mistakes, but who can capitalize on the opportunities with field position and match ups.
I expect this to be a great game and hope both teams avoid injury as they march towards the playoffs.
Top Photo Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
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