One of the cornerstones of the Bills defense, Greg Rousseau has developed into one of the best young EDGE’s in the NFL after three years in the league. While the personal accolades have not quite caught up to his game, he is among the best in many statistical categories when compared to his peers. This also means that he is in line to be paid like them too.
With any contract extension, there are risks associated with signing a player to a big extension as this drastically affects the cap and ties you to that player for at least the next few seasons. While injuries and production cannot be predicted, looking at past performance and availability can help front offices hedge their bets.
Injury history and availability are certainly baked into contracts and Rousseau’s history needs to be considered. The Bills are taking a risk in signing him to a contract extension, but considering the market for the EDGE position, if they don’t sign him, someone else will, injuries and cap room be damned.
Below is the injury history for Greg Rousseau and comparable EDGE with regards to finances, key defensive metrics, and injuries.
Greg Rousseau Injury Analysis
College
2018 — True Freshman year: Appeared in two games before suffering a right ankle fracture against Savannah State, missed the remaining 11 games. He required season-ending surgery to stabilize the break and ultimately missed the remainder of the season.
2019 — Redshirt Freshman year: Appeared in 13 games, racking up 15.5 sacks, 54 total tackles, and 19.5 tackles for loss. For those efforts, he was named All-ACC First Team and All-America Second Team along with a selection to the All-America Freshman team.
Injury-wise, Rousseau was slowed by a lower back injury during training camp but appeared to resolve without incident in time for the season opener. Details are not specific regarding the injury, but the information available did not appear to signify that it was worrisome.
2020: Opt Out
NFL
PB: 0
Career 17 game averages: QB Hurry: 10 QB Knockdown: 10 Sack: 6.9 Pressures: 28
2021: Right Toe, Week 4, missed 0 games
2022: Left High-ankle sprain, Week 9, missed 3 games
2023: Right foot fracture, Week 4, missed 1 game
Comparable EDGE Rushers
Note: All contract details are from OverTheCap and all statistical and injury info is from Pro Football Reference updated through Week 16 of the 2024 season unless linked to a specific source.
Great Value
Nick Bosa
AP: 1 PB: 5, DPOY, ROY
Extension 2023: 5-year, $170M, $50M GTD, $34M AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 16 QB Knockdown: 20 Sack: 13.1 Pressures: 49
49ers
2019: Ankle, questionable, missed 0 games
2020: Left ACL tear, missed 14 games, IR
2021: Concussion, questionable, missed 0 games
2022: Illness, Hamstring, questionable, missed 0 games
2023: Missed 0 games
2024: Rib, questionable, missed 0 games, Bilateral Hip/Oblique, missed 3 games
TJ Watt
AP: 4 PB: 7, DPOY
Extension 2023: 4-year, $112M, $88M GTD, $28M AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 15 QB Knockdown: 17 Sack: 16.4 Pressures: 49
Steelers
2017: Groin, missed 1 game
2018: Missed 0 games
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Missed 0 games
2021: Groin, missed 1 game, Hip, missed 1 game
2022: Pectoral strain, missed 7 games, IR, Ribs, questionable, missed 0 games
2023: Knee, missed 1 game
2024: Missed 0 games
Myles Garrett
AP: 4 PB: 6, DPOY
Extension 2020: 5-year, $125M, $21M GTD, $25 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 14 QB Knockdown: 14 Sack: 15.5 Pressures: 45
Browns
2017: Left foot sprain, OTA’s, Right High-ankle sprain, missed 4 games, Concussion, missed 1 game
2018: Missed 0 games
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Ankle injury, Week 7, missed 0 games, Knee injury, Week 8, missed 0 games, COVID, missed 2 games, Shoulder injury, questionable, knee injury, missed 0 games
2021: Knee, ankle, groin, missed 0 games
2022: Car crash, minor injuries, Left Shoulder, Biceps, lacerations, missed 1 game, dislocated right big toe, Pro Bowl
2023: Left Shoulder, Week 12, missed 0 games, Left Shoulder/hamstring, Week 18, missed 1 game.
2024: Thigh, Achilles, bilateral foot injuries, missed 0 games.
Danielle Hunter
PB: 4
Extension 2018: 5-year, $72M, $15M GTD, $14.4 AAV
Extension 2023: 1-year, $17M, $5.5M GTD, $17M GTD
New Contract 2024: 2-year, $49M, $21M GTD, $24.5M AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 17 QB Knockdown: 7 Sack: 14.1 Pressures: 39
Vikings
2015: Missed 0 games
2016: Missed 0 games
2017: Missed 0 games
2018: Missed 0 games
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Cervical disc herniation with repair, IR, missed 16 games
2021: Pectoral tear, IR, missed 10 games
2022: Neck, questionable, missed 0 games
2023: Missed 0 games
Texans
2024: Missed 0 games
Maxx Crosby
PB: 4
Extension 2022: 4-year, $94M, $53M GTD, $23.5 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 17 QB Knockdown: 14 Sack: 10.6 Pressures: 42
Raiders
2019: Broken hand, preseason vs Rams, missed 0 games
2020: Missed 0 games.
2021: Broken right hand, left shoulder labrum tear, missed 0 games.
2022: Missed 0 games.
2023: Left knee bursa sac injury, Week 2, missed 0 games.
Right thumb UCL tear, required surgery.
2024:
Left High-Ankle sprain, Week 2, missed 1 game.
Left High-Ankle Sprain aggravation, Week 14, placed on IR, missed 4 games.
Trey Hendrickson
PB:4
Extension 2021: 4-year, $60M, $10M, $15M AAV
Extension 2024: 1-year, $21M, $8M GTD, $21M AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 12 QB Knockdown: 13 Sack: 12.5 Pressures: 39
Saints
2017 New Orleans Saints: Ankle injury, Week 14, missed 3 games.
2018: Missed 0 games.
2019: Neck injury, Week 4, missed 3 games.
2020:
Groin injury, Week 2, missed 0 games.
Neck injury, Week 15, missed 1 game.
Neck injury, Week 17, missed 1 game.
2021 Cincinnati Bengals:
Groin injury, preseason.
Back injury, Week 14, missed 0 games.
COVID, Week 18, missed 1 game.
Concussion, Wild Card, missed 0 games.
2022:
Neck injury, Week 7, missed 0 games.
Right wrist fracture, Week 14, missed 1 game.
2023:
Back injury, Week 4, missed 0 games.
Left ankle injury, Week 8, missed 0 games.
Hyperextended knee injury, Week 10, missed 0 games.
2024:
Undisclosed injury, preseason.
Neck injury/stinger, Week 4, missed 0 games.
Neck injury, Week 10, missed 0 games.
Harold Landry
PB: 1
Extension 2022: 5-year, $87.5M, $35M, $17.5M AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 14 QB Knockdown: 8 Sack: 8.7 Pressures: 31
Titans
2018: Ankle, missed 1 game
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Missed 0 games
2021: Missed 0 games
2022: Right ACL tear, missed 17 games, IR
2023: Abdomen injury, missed 0 games
2024: Missed 0 games
Fair Value
Josh Hines-Allen
PB: 2
Extension 2024: 5-year, $141M, $76M GTD, $28.2 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 12 QB Knockdown: 13 Sack: 10 Pressures: 36
Jaguars
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Knee sprain, missed 2 games, Knee sprain, missed 6 games, IR
2021: Missed 0 games
2022: Missed 0 games
2023: Shoulder, questionable, missed 0 games
2024: Concussion, questionable, missed 0 games, Personal reasons, missed 1 game
Brian Burns
PB: 2
Extension 2024: 5-year, $141M, $76.5M GTD, $28.2 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 11 QB Knockdown: 10 Sack: 9.6 Pressures: 31
Panthers
2019: Wrist, questionable, missed 0 games
2020: Knee, questionable, missed 0 games, Shoulder, doubtful, missed 1 game
2021: Foot, questionable, missed 0 games
2022: Ankle, questionable, missed 1 game
2023: Ankle, Elbow, Ankle, questionable, missed 0 games, Concussion, missed 1 game
Giants
2024: Groin, questionable, missed 0 games
Montez Sweat
PB: 1
Extension 2023: 4-year, $98M, $42M GTD, $24.5 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 11 QB Knockdown: 12 Sack: 8.8 Pressures: 33
Commanders
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Missed 0 games
2021: Jaw fracture, missed 5 games, IR, Personal, missed 2 games
2022: Missed 0 games
Bears
2023: Missed 0 games
2024: Toe, questionable, missed 0 games, Shin, missed 1 game, Ankle, questionable, missed 0 games
Rashan Gary
PB: 1
Extension 2023: 4-year, $96M, $34.6M GTD, $24 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 10 QB Knockdown: 9 Sack: 7.3 Pressures: 27
Packers
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Ankle, missed 1 game
2021: Elbow, missed 1 game
2022: Toe, questionable, missed 0 games, Concussion, questionable, missed 0 games, Left ACL tear, missed 8 game, IR
2023: Shoulder, questionable, missed 0 games
2024: Missed 0 games
Jonathan Greenard
PB: 1
Extension 2024: 4-year, $76M, $16.5M GTD, $19 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 10 QB Knockdown: 8 Sack:9 Pressures: 27
Texans
2020: Ankle, missed 1 game, illness, questionable, missed 0 games
2021: Illness, missed 1 game, foot, missed 1 game, questionable for 3
2022: Ankle, missed 9 games, IR
2023: Ankle, missed 2 games, questionable for 1
Vikings
2024: Extension, missed 0 games
Bryce Huff
PB: 0
Extension 2024: 3-year, $51.1M, $15.5M GTD, $17.5 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 7 QB Knockdown: 7 Sack: 5.2 Pressures: 20
Jets
2020: missed 0 games
2021: Back, missed 8 games, IR
2022: missed 0 games
2023: missed 0 games
Eagles
2024: Wrist injury with surgery, missed 5 games, IR
Alex Highsmith
PB: 0
Extension 2023: 4-year, $68M, $16M GTD, $17 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 8 QB Knockdown: 8 Sack: 7.9 Pressures: 25
Steelers
2020: missed 0 games
2021: Groin, missed 1 game
2022: missed 0 games
2023: Groin, questionable, missed 0 games
2024: Groin, missed 3 games, Ankle, missed 3 games
Poor Value
Bradley Chubb
PB: 2
Extension 2022: 5-year, $110M, $33.4M GTD, $22 million AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 14 QB Knockdown: 11 Sack: 9.2 Pressures: 36
Broncos
2018: missed 0 games
2019: Left ACL tear, missed 12 games, IR
2020: Ankle, missed 2 games
2021: Right Ankle (May surgery), missed 1 game, Left ankle surgery bone spur removal, IR, missed 8 games, shoulder, questionable, missed 0 games
Dolphins
2022: Knee, questionable, missed 0 games, Ankle, missed 1 game, questionable
2023: Right torn ACL, MCL, meniscus, patellar tendon, missed 2 games
2024: Rehab from ACL, missed 17 games
Joey Bosa
PB: 4, ROY
Extension 2020: 5-year, $135M, $35M GTD, $27M AAV
Renegotiation 2024: 2-year, $40.3M, $7M GTD, $20.1 AAV
Career 17-game averages: QB Hurry: 18 QB Knockdown: 13 Sack: 10.7 Pressures: 43
Chargers
2016: Hamstring, missed 3 games
2017: Missed 0 games
2018: Left foot injury, missed 9 games
2019: Missed 0 games
2020: Triceps, questionable, missed 0 games, Concussion, missed 2 games, Shin, missed 2 games
2021: Foot, questionable, missed 0 games, Ankle, questionable, missed 0 games
2022: Core muscle repair, missed 12 games, IR
2023: Hamstring, questionable, missed 1 game, Toe, questionable, missed 0 games, Right foot, missed 7 games, IR
2024: Back, questionable, missed 0 games, Hip, missed 3 games, questionable
Analysis
Using Over The Cap’s valuation chart, I took the top 18 contracts for EDGE rushers and analyzed their injury histories. I excluded Von Miller and Khalil Mack due to their age and individual career achievements that don’t match up with their salary at this point. No other EDGE is older than 31 in this analysis.
Looking at the injury histories of each player who has signed an extension assesses the risk of signing an EDGE player to a long-term extension. This also sets the floor and ceiling for determining the average value.
Great Value
Analyzing the tiers, seven players can be perceived as “Great Value”. I assess this as they are playing up to their contract value, have the accolades to back it up or miss minimal time. Most of the injuries above are relatively minor and do not carry any long-term risks which is why they have been able to live up to their contracts. The players with any sort of consistency with specific injury issues are Myles Garrett with several shoulder injuries and Trey Hendrickson with his neck injuries with stingers being the cause for at least one of his most recent injuries.
The only exception are the ACL tears that N Bosa and Landry suffered but they have shown that they could return to a high level of play and miss minimal time moving forward. Many players return from ACL tears and go on to have productive careers when the damage is limited to ACL plus MCL or meniscus. Bigger issues get into multi-ligament tears which will be addressed later.
The notable outlier in that group would be Danielle Hunter who had a cervical disc herniation which shows that most players returned to their prior level of play regardless of surgery. It’s not clear what surgery Hunter underwent with reports stating that it was a “repair” which could be a microdiscectomy or fusion but adjacent cervical disc herniation is about 10 percent following surgery. Average career length following a procedure is 3.1 years but Hunter has not only exceeded the average career length, but potentially elevated his level of play.
Other than one game in 2022 where he was questionable, he has not had any known issues due to the neck nor missed any further time. Hunter was a slam dunk extension at the time who had horrible luck back-to-back years with injuries but has since rebounded to elite play and matching his current contract worth.
Fair Value
Assessing the next tier, the “Fair Value”, comprises seven players. I assess this as players who are productive, they have minimal accolades or none at all. They may also be the players who can continue to grow and develop with the idea that their contract will eventually be a value.
This area is where players begin to tease themselves out with the top two in Hines-Allen and Burns who don’t have a ton of accolades but have production. Rashan Gary is notable for signing to his extension after his ACL tear and has demonstrated his ability to stay healthy and productive afterward. This is despite not having as much production as comparable contracts in Trey Hendrickson, Maxx Crosby, or Danielle Hunter.
The rest of the players have shown to be pretty healthy and reliable playing at their average value according to availability and statistical production. Greenard has a history of ankle issues, Huff has his back and wrist injuries that appeared to be one-off issues, but none of the injuries appear to be lingering or long-term concerns.
Poor Value
The final tier, “Poor Value” is a smaller group of only Bradley Chubb and Joey Bosa. Both had notable injuries prior to their extensions and continued to have injury issues and decreased availability leading to their poor value.
Both are very productive when on the field, but they cannot be relied upon consistently. When J Bosa is healthy, he is one of the best in the league and earning his contract. But once injuries begin during the season, he misses a ton of time and struggles to get back on the field. The Chargers even realized that and renegotiated his contract lowering his AAV from $27 million to $20.1 million to lessen their financial burden. J Bosa just has had so much injury wise that there isn’t one exact issue leading to concerns, it’s the volume of injuries. This was a trend early on that worsened throughout his career.
Chubb missed the entire 2024 season due to his multi-ligament injury suffered at the end of the 2023 season. The timing of his injury hurt 2024, but he had a significant injury history prior with multiple trips to injured reserve with now three ACL tears dating back to high school (2 left, 1 right), multiple ankle surgeries, and missed time for other injuries. Players with the tissue damage that Chubb had following his most recent knee injury return to play 55.6 percent of the time and have a lower return to prior performance rate (46 percent vs 18 percent).
Both J Bosa and Chubb can and should continue to play in the league but have shown they are a “buyer beware”. The issue with both of them was that if they initially let them walk, someone else would pay them but that team would have been burdened with the high pay and low availability had they suffered the same injuries elsewhere.
Greg Rousseau Value
Comparing Greg Rousseau when looking at his peers, he has shown to be fairly healthy, missing only four games over his career with three of those games due to a high-ankle. None of his injuries have the potential for long-term or lingering issues even dating back to college. He does not have the accolades or statistics of the top-tier EDGE rushers such as N Bosa, Watt, or Garrett which means that he is in the next tier in regards to pay.
Addressing the next tier, the floor is established with the poor value contracts in Chubb and J Bosa. While both players have Pro Bowl accolades, both have been unable to stay healthy which means Rousseau already has a leg up on them.
Comparing him to players in the fair value and poor value, several metrics are used to provide a more complete picture. Factoring in quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns, sacks, and pressures, helps tease out the production and availability to establish a reasonable contract.
Looking at his ceiling, he’s not quite at the $28 million AAV with Hines-Allen or Burns based on statistical production. Rousseau is not as statistically productive as Crosby or Hendrickson who are paid more but signed their contracts several years ago and Rousseau does not have the accolades they have either yet.
His best comparable may be Rashan Gary who is currently at $24.5 million AAV. Prior to this season, Gary had never been a Pro Bowler and had very similar statistics to Rousseau but missed more time. Jonathan Greenard is also very close to Rousseau statistically and is paid $19 million AAV but has also missed more time.
Factoring in the salary cap continuing to rise, anticipating future production, injury history, and availability, Greg Rousseau should be expecting to get between $22-25 million AAV. This is comparable to players with similar productivity but Rousseau has shown to be healthier than nearly everyone besides Garrett, Hendrickson, and Crosby.
If I am the agent representing Greg Rousseau, I am asking for the Rashan Gary contract but settling for no lower than what Bradley Chubb is making. If Rousseau wants to be team-friendly, he could take the Greenard contract, but this would be a significant discount from what he perceived to be worth. If he signs now, he may be cheaper but if he has another big season, he could be looking to exceed $25 million AAV.
This would put him in line with his contemporaries but not overpay him. The Bills would be smart to lock him in at anything under $25 million/year and anything under $22 million would be a steal. The likely scenario for Rousseau based on current production would be Maxx Crosby, Montez Sweat, or Trey Hendrickson, consistent Pro Bowl players. Best case would be Hines-Allen, Burns, or elevating to All-Pro selections or DPOY would be eventually giving the Bills a significant discount.
The worst case for Rousseau, once he signs his extension, is the Danielle Hunter contract, suffering significant injuries in back-to-back years. Hunter has shown he has been able to return to form following his cervical disc herniation and pectoral tear. Whether the Bills would want to hold onto him through that can’t be predicted, but there is precedent for a player to return to form after injury. Rousseau’s injury history does not suggest he will turn into Chubb or J Bosa in terms of injury issues.
Signing Greg Rousseau to a contract extension based on everything outlined above should be a pretty safe bet even if he suffers injuries that cost him time. He has lived up to his first-round draft pedigree by demonstrating consistent production, avoiding major injury, and showing great potential to further develop into an elite-tier edge rusher.
Top Photo Credit: Associated Press
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