The 2022 draft class has just finished their third season which means they are now extension eligible. One of the better Bills draft picks out of the 2022 class is WR Khalil Shakir. After entering the season as the only receiver to have caught a pass from Josh Allen, he became Allen’s favorite target securing 76 receptions for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The Bills have a decision to make to determine whether Shakir is worth signing to a contract extension. Expected future production, injuries, and cap space will all factor into their decision.
Today’s article analyzes Shakir’s injury history, what a potential price range may be, and whether he would be worth signing.
Injury History
College
For a detailed injury history from college, please click here.
NFL
2022 Buffalo Bills
Soreness, preseason.
Illness, Week 13, missed 0 games.
2023 Bills
Rib injury, preseason game 2, missed 1 preseason game.
2024 Bills
Right High-Ankle sprain, Week 4, missed 1 game.
Injury Analysis
This is one of the cleaner injury histories that a Bills player has had and surprised even me when this was all that I had found.
A rib injury and high-ankle sprain are the only issues that have come up over his three year career. Neither injury has any lingering concern and are more incidental at the moment. To miss only one game in three years and he nearly played in that one is impressive.
There are zero concerns about his injury history, any potential new injuries, or any longevity concerns.
Market Value
This is where the numbers wildly differ. Spotrac has Shakir’s market value at $19.4 million AAV whereas Over the Cap has him at $7.2 million AAV. That is a gigantic difference in terms of his potential value which makes it confusing where his true contract number may lie.
I used Ourlads to tease out what players who are designated as slot receivers are making to help provide a reasonable comparison for Shakir. Nearly half of the league has a player on a rookie contract playing at that position which rules out their comparison as their value was set by their draft position.
That leaves 17 players to compare with their AAV listed next to them, all data courtesy of Over the Cap. Looking below, there is nearly a $10 million gap between Christian Kirk and Adam Thielen when it comes to slot receivers. There may be some players that aren’t exclusively slot receivers in between, but this is what Ourlads has for starters.
DAL CeeDee Lamb $34M
DET Amon Ra St Brown $30M
NYJ DaVante Adams $28M
LAR Cooper Kupp $26.7M
PHI DeVonta Smith $25M
TB Chris Godwin $20M
CHI Keenan Allen $20M
JAX Christian Kirk $18M
CAR Adam Thielen $8.3M
SF Jauan Jennings $5.9M
CLE Elijah Moore FA
BAL Nelson Agholor $3.7M
NO Rashid Shaheed $3M
TEN Tyler Boyd $2.4M
WAS Olamide Zaccheaus $1.2M
ARI Greg Dortch $1.1M
LV DJ Turner $927k
Shakir is an ascending talent and will make $3.2 million this upcoming season. I can’t see him taking a paycut from what his rookie contract pays so that moves him above Rashid Shaheed. Most of the players below are older or have not produced to the level that Shakir has shown.
Some comparable players to Shakir are the Browns Elijah Moore, 49ers Jauan Jennings, and Panthers Adam Thielen. Moore is set to be a free agent with a value of $4.5 million on Spotrac and $8.7 million on OTC. Jennings took advantage of injuries around him on the 49ers roster and turned it into his best season ever. Thielen is on the back end of his career after several highly productive years with the Vikings.
On the opposite end is Christian Kirk who appears to be an outlier signing an outrageous contract with Jacksonville in free agency several years ago averaging $18 million AAV. He has not lived up to that contract and could be a cap casualty this offseason.
Comparing what Shakir did in his first three years to what Kirk did his first three years indicates that Shakir should make $18 million+, but Shakir’s production does not match anyone else on the list above him. I’m not certain the Bills would pay for past mistakes of others.
I could see a scenario where he makes between $8-11 million AAV which could be palatable with a bigger signing bonus to offset the money. This is merely a guess based on where he would slot in against other comparable receivers but Shakir will be paid. If he gets paid way more, then it only benefits him.
Final Thoughts
Shakir’s best years are ahead of him and there are really zero risks from an injury perspective in signing him to a long-term extension. The only uncertainty is how much he will make. It won’t surprise me if makes more, but Shakir is not the only player they have to pay. I’m looking forward to when the contract details are announced but this is about as safe of an extension that can be signed.
Top Photo Credit: AP Photo/Steven Senne
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