The Buffalo Bills are on bye this week to give them a much-deserved break as they prepare for the final stretch of the regular season and potentially deep playoff run.
As the players rehab and recover, this is an excellent time to look back at all the various injuries on injured reserve and some of the recent notable injuries including when each player may return.
Current Injuries
ACTIVE ROSTER
TE Dalton Kincaid (Left Knee)
Estimated Return: Week 13
Kincaid missed Week 11 after suffering what appeared to be a PCL sprain in his left knee trying to dive for a deep Josh Allen pass. The fact that he returned and tried to play at least suggested it was a mild sprain.
When he does return, he will be returning with a hinged knee brace to prevent the posterior translation of the tibia in relation to the femur. Having the week off to get the hamstring and quad muscles strengthened along with allowing the ligament to heal will improve stability within the knee.
There is a strong likelihood that he will return to play in Week 13, but this injury may linger for a few more weeks. There are comparables below as to how different players responded to their respective PCL sprains.
Other PCL sprain comparables include:
-Buffalo Bills DT Harrison Phillips: 2021, missed 1 preseason game.
-Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis: 2023, missed two postseason games.
-Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson: 2022, missed 6 games.
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Julio Jones: 2022, missed 2 games, returned and missed three more.
-New York Jets QB Zach Wilson: 2021, missed 4 games.
-Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott: 2022, initially played through the injury, missed 2 games later, and wore a brace
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers DT Ndamukong Suh: 2022, missed 0 games.
-New York Jets WR Eric Decker: 2015, missed 1 game.
-Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua: 2024, missed preseason, re-injured, went to IR, missed 5 games.
This won’t be something that he requires surgery on and will heal normally but don’t be alarmed if he remains on the injury report for the rest of the season.
WR Amari Cooper (Left Wrist)
Estimated Return: Week 13
Cooper returned to play last week after missing the last two games with a left wrist injury that has required a cast. Based on the mechanism of injury and casting, it’s possible that he suffered a TFCC injury.
This is an injury that with the proper healing time can eventually heal. Having it casted likely allowed it to heal enough to scar down the area to improve stability and function. This injury may not be fully improved until the season is done, but casting the area likely bought him enough time to play without too many restrictions. Having a limited workload in Week 11 and the bye gave him nearly a month to recover. He may eventually require surgery but this won’t be known until after the season.
WR Keon Coleman (Right Wrist)
Estimated Return: Week 13
I still don’t have a great read on what Coleman did. I’ve gone back and forth on a bad contusion to a fracture to everything in between. Coleman had a black brace on that first week after the injury but hasn’t been seen with anything since then using the hand freely during his coat drive and other events.
He missed two games because of this injury following the hit from Jordan Poyer. The fact that he’s using the hand more is promising, but we need to see how he is using the hand more in practice and catching footballs. Having three weeks off should allow for ample healing time for him to return. It’s reasonable to expect that he can return for Week 13, but if he doesn’t, that means we don’t have all the information.
OT Spencer Brown (Right Ankle)
Estimated Return: Week 13
Brown suffered a lateral ankle sprain against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 as you can see below.
This was your garden variety low ankle sprain but considering it was his outside ankle when blocking, a limited practice and testing on Saturday wasn’t enough for Brown to suit up against the Chiefs. He injured the same ankle back in 2022 though that sprain at the time appeared to be more severe as his leg was taken out from under him in that game.
Having two weeks off to rehab the ankle is usually enough time for most players to return which means Brown should be ready in Week 13. He will still have the ankle braced and taped, but his mobility should have improved enough to get through the season.
Injured Reserve (Can Return)
LB Baylon Spector (Calf)
Estimated Return: Week 15-16
Spector injured his calf in practice on November 8 when he took a step wrong, suffering a Grade 2 strain. He was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 10 making him eligible to return in Week 15 after missing four games plus the bye.
Having five weeks to return after even that significant of a strain is potentially enough to heal. Players miss a median time of 17.4 +- 14.6 days for a player to return to play from a calf strain.
Spector would be on the longer end of that timeframe but this may be due to the IR designation and still may receive extra time to rehab due to roster gymnastics when he can be activated. He did have a calf issue back in August which forced him out of the Steelers preseason game but it’s not clear if this is the same side.
OT Tylan Grable (Core Muscle/Groin)
Estimated Return: TBD
Grable exited the Week 3 contest with a groin/core muscle injury after just three offense snaps in garbage time. You can see below how he likely injured his groin.
The following few days, Sean McDermott noted how Grable would be out several weeks and later placed him on injured reserve. He was eligible to return as soon as Week 8 but has not yet. It’s very likely he underwent a core muscle repair with timelines being anywhere from 3-12 weeks. At time of publication, Grable would be roughly eight weeks removed from the injury/procedure. Even if he took the full 12 weeks to return, that brings him to roughly Christmas time.
Grable returning this season is not when, but more of an if situation. I could see them opening his practice window just to get him practice reps even if they don’t intend to activate him like they did with Justin Shorter last year. Considering he is a rookie, they may use this injury as a redshirt year but if there are depth issues over the next month, we could see Grable return.
DE Dawaune Smoot (Right Wrist)
Estimated Return: Week 16-17
Smoot suffered a wrist injury in Week 8 when he engaged in a block with Miami Dolphins TE Durham Smythe. He made contact and immediately grabbed at his wrist and left the game.
The team immediately ruled him out and stated he underwent surgery that Tuesday after the game on November 5. Based on the quick rule-out and surgery, he likely suffered a fracture in the area that required stabilization. Looking at the mechanism with the wrist extension and contact made, that is similar to a FOOSH or fall on an outstretched hand. It’s possible he suffered a distal radius fracture or otherwise known as a Colles fracture that required surgical stabilization.
Distal radial fractures caused players to miss on average 42 days or six weeks after surgical fixation. Other research suggested that it took anywhere from six to nine weeks but considering this injury is suspected to be at the radius and the radius articulated at the elbow, movements at both the wrist and elbow have to be considered when returning Smoot to play. Considering how a player tackles, hand-fighting, and blocking, six weeks may be enough for some positions but others may need more time.
Smoot is eligible to return against the Detroit Lions in Week 15 but I could see the Bills stretching this timeline out given the end of the schedule and his recovery. I expect him to return this season and the Bills have confirmed as much, but as with several other players, roster gymnastics may come into play.
LB Matt Milano (Left Biceps/Right Tibial Plateau Fracture)
Estimated Return: Week 13-14
Matt Milano’s practice window opened last week much to the delight of Bills Mafia. We didn’t see a ton from him but what we did see was promising with both the left biceps tear and right tibial plateau fracture. He needs to callous himself up and prepare himself to hit again.
We will get a better idea of where he is once practice starts back on Wednesday, but if I were the team, I would hold him out until Week 14 against the Los Angeles Rams. We have some previous comparables on how the team re-introduces players including CB Tre’Davious White (ACL), DT DaQuan Jones (Right Pectoral), and TE Dawson Knox (Right Wrist).
White played in 23 percent of snaps in his first game back followed by 61 percent before returning to 100 percent in his third game in 2022.
Jones returned to 53 percent of snaps in his first game back before increasing to 63 percent in the second game, roughly his regular snap count in 2023
Knox returned to 47 percent of snaps in the first game before increasing to 62 percent in the second game. He settled back into a mid-40 percent snap count for the remainder of the season in 2023.
I would ramp Milano up how they did with Tre White considering the leg injury and the need to callous him up. A full return could be seen as soon as Week 16 but the Bills would be smart not to rush his snaps or get back onto the field.
DT DeWayne Carter (Right Wrist)
Estimated Return: Week 13-14
Carter suffered a right wrist injury against the Tennessee Titans when he appeared to hit his wrist as he somersaulted over after a play early in the second half.
https://twitter.com/BangedUpBills/status/1850278472666821011
He went for X-rays and was limited in practice all week before the team placed him on injured reserve. It’s not clear if he underwent surgery to pin the bone, but if he did, this would help the bone heal completely. Carter is eligible to return in Week 13; the team has an open roster spot right now. To miss four weeks and have five weeks to recover is ample time for a player to return to play, we saw this last year with Dawson Knox who has to block and catch passes. They could elect to activate Carter without any corresponding roster moves or they could release Quinton Jefferson or Jordan Phillips.
Carter’s practice window could open ahead of Week 13 which allows him to ramp up and activate over the next few weeks with minimal long-term concerns.
Injured Reserve (Cannot Return)
OT Travis Clayton (Right Shoulder Surgery)
Clayton suffered a right shoulder injury dating back to July 26 and missed the entirety of training camp before undergoing surgery on his shoulder back in mid-September.
Based on the delayed timeline from when he suffered the original injury to surgery on September 19, he may have suffered a rotator cuff tear.
With the timeline he’s on, he should be close to ready for OTA’s in the springtime.
QB Shane Buchele (Neck)
Buchele suffered a neck injury in the first preseason game as seen below. He likely suffered some type of cervical compression fracture that required time to heal. He was placed on injured reserve and has spent the season helping prepare the quarterbacks every week.
OT Tommy Doyle (Left ACL)
Doyle is still recovering from a right ACL tear suffered against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the 2023 preseason. He tore his ACL, LCL, and suffered nerve damage that left him with a foot drop requiring him to wear an AFO. He was placed on PUP during OTA’s making him ineligible to return during the 2024 season. This was a protection in the CBA that protected injured players who suffered injuries and were unable to return to play within a reasonable timeframe.
His salary was guaranteed for 2024 as he continued to rehab. His ligament damage is healed by now, the issue is whether he can play with his foot drop. Considering that he is unable to lift his foot upward, this makes running difficult even with an AFO which locks the ankle in neutral. Factoring in that Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are locked in as bookend tackles, Doyle’s best shot to make an NFL roster would be a switch to guard or backup right tackle where he can keep his left foot inside.
Final Thoughts
Despite this injury list being rather long, we haven’t seen a lot of major injuries this year. At least none that have led to players not having the ability to later return.
The Bills appear to be getting healthy at the right time for the final December push into the playoffs. I do expect this list to grow but hopefully, the Bills can cycle some of the healthier players in case they suffer more injuries. We will see what comes of the practice reports this week once they return from their bye week, but the Bills are looking good for a potentially deep playoff run.
Top Photo Credit: Buffalo Rumblings
