After a breakout season in 2024 with 16 rushing touchdowns, Bills running back James Cook is determined to cash in on his success. The NFL has a short time frame when players can maximize their earnings potential and every dollar matters.
Cook has publicly stated that he is looking for $15 million per year after leading the league in touchdowns and his second 1000 yard season. Even with the production, the league has been resistant to paying top running backs to long-term deals. He has certainly shown to be a true talent, but what is his shelf life and how much is he really worth to the Bills?
Today’s article analyzes Cook’s injury history, what a potential price range may be, and whether he would be worth signing.
Injury History
College
For a complete injury history, please click here.
2022 Buffalo Bills
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Bills
Illness, Week 16, missed 0 games.
2024 Bills
Left toe injury, Week 5, missed 1 game.
Injury Analysis
I had to do a double take on Cook’s injury history. I thought he suffered more injuries but besides the toe injury and illness, he has been incredibly durable. He was only ever on the injury report one other time for a personal matter in 2023 for the birth of his child and he only missed one practice.
His toe injury strongly suggested that he suffered a turf toe injury when his toe slammed down onto the turf late in Week 5. He had originally stated that he would play the following game but missed after only getting a limited practice in that week. Turf toe injuries are typically that linger more in season than year-to-year. I have zero concern about this injury moving forward.
He has rounded out into one of the better running backs in the league after his breakout season in 2024. He had one good year, can he make it two?
Market Value
Both Spotrac and Over The Cap believe that Cook will command a significant increase in pay in his new contract. Spotrac has him at $10 million AAV, while Over The Cap has him at $6 million AAV. Despite those numbers, Cook has publicly stated that he thinks he’s worth $15 million AAV. That number puts him only behind Christian McCaffrey in terms of running back pay.
Cook is good, but he has only recently shown how good he is. One year of elite production certainly warrants a discussion, but guys like McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, and Kamara have dealt with their respective injuries, but have proven to play more and their absence is more significant when they are out.
Looking at the snap counts, some of the top backs play way more snaps than Cook. In 2024, Alvin Kamara played in 71%, Saquan Barkley played 74%, Jonathan Taylor played 80%, Christian McCaffrey played 75%. James Cook played 48%. Cook also wasn’t as heavily used in college but increased his workload every season since entering the league. It would stand to reason that Cook could increase his workload as he did play 55% last year but would need to get into 70%+ to warrant the money he wants.
Those backs and others also play many more snaps than Cook which may partially explain why he has avoided some of the injuries that others have suffered. If he can increase his workload and see that he can maintain it consistently, then those contract numbers that he wants are more reasonable.
Final Thoughts
Signing James Cook to an extension is not the question due to his health. The question is, how much? The cap continues to go up and if I were Brandon Beane, I would hold steady. Make him go out and do what he did in 2024 again. Increase his workload, show that he can be the highly paid, dependable running back that he thinks he is.
This may become a game of chicken where Beane outlasts Cook. He could bet on himself in 2025 but suffer an injury that tanks his market. The smart move would be to sign now before training camp at the $10 million AAV or less, I believe those are his counterparts and a reasonable number. But if he wants more, he better prove he can handle more. It’s certainly a risk.
I’m really curious to see when and for how much James Cook signs for whether it be in Buffalo or elsewhere. This may become a drawn out process.
Top Photo Credit: Getty Images
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