The Buffalo Bills take on the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football in one of the more interesting games of the year. Both teams come in 6-1, with the Bills riding a high-powered offense and the Vikings leading with a stifling defense. One team will lose this game, but this will be a true test to see which prevails in front of the entire nation on Monday night.
Read below for the full analysis on each injury report, including injury statistics you won’t find anywhere else, projected inactives, and some interesting statistics in final thoughts.
The Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings Week 9 Injury Preview is brought to you this season by Richmond Vona, LLC.
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BUFFALO BILLS INJURY REPORT
OUT
WR Josh Palmer (Right Hamstring)
Palmer was ruled out after not practicing all week due to his right hamstring injury suffered in Sunday’s win over the Ravens.
He had all the injuries to the left side last year, and this year it’s his right hamstring. Wide receivers miss almost 2 games on average with a hamstring strain at 1.89, according to the Banged Up Bills injury database. Knowing his injury history at this point and how valuable the roster spot is, it’s possible that the team moves him to injured reserve rather than trying to rush him back. Right now, he has a 58.3 percent chance of re-injuring the hamstring within the next 8 weeks, which takes you to the playoffs. Do you try to have him play or just take the roster spot and then you’re not rushed to bring him back? I’d lean towards IR to give Palmer time to get right. Until we get a roster transaction, he’s out for the foreseeable future.
QUESTIONABLE
G Alec Anderson (Right Ankle)
Anderson had his right ankle rolled up on early in the first quarter and briefly missed time before returning. Austin Corbett did fill in for him while he was briefly out, but he didn’t miss any offensive snaps.
Looking at the film, there is concern for a high-ankle sprain considering how the Ravens defensive tackle fell onto his ankle.
This is an injury that can be played through, but I do have concerns about how effective Anderson can be. Dion Dawkins played through a similar injury several years ago on his right ankle because this was his inside leg. Anderson needs to be able to play in a phone booth, which doesn’t require as much ankle movement compared to a skill player, but considering he still needs to move in every direction depending on the play and blocking responsibilities, he may not have the mobility necessary to carry out all his positional needs.
He is currently at a 50.7 percent chance to play on Monday, which is a true coin flip according to the Banged Up Bills injury database when accounting for practice participation, injury, and position. At this point, I think you have Austin Corbett start and let Anderson rest.
DT Greg Gaines (Calf)
Gaines missed last Sunday’s game after tweaking his calf in practice last Friday. He was unable to practice most of the week before getting a limited practice in again. This DNP, DNP, limited-practice trend has shown the Bills to be incredibly conservative this year, with just 1 out of 7 playing this year (Keon Coleman, Ankle, Week 3).
Despite being a 53 percent chance to play Sunday, defensive tackles miss, on average, 1.92 games due to a calf injury. His injury is only a week old, and after not practicing most of the week, I don’t anticipate that he plays.
OT Dion Dawkins (Rib)
Dawkins was a surprise addition to the injury report this week as he dealt with a rib injury suffered sometime in the first quarter on Sunday.
Despite not practicing Thursday and Friday, he was optimistic that he would suit up on Monday. I was expecting him to get a limited or full practice on Saturday, but he did not. Despite having a 17 percent chance to play on Monday, no Bills player who had 3 DNP’s in a week played in the game.
I had re-run the raw data with the help of Claude as well to look at things further, and there were 60 injury-report weeks that had 8 linemen miss 11 games total. The first two days of practice didn’t matter as much as the last day of practice. If they were DNP x 3, they didn’t play. If they got a limited or full practice in, nearly every player played. Dawkins was trending in the right direction until he wasn’t. Despite the questionable designation, I don’t see him playing unless he breaks away from a long-standing pattern of players who don’t practice and don’t play.
Finally, Joe Brady said on Saturday that some guys don’t need practice to play. He said this about Ty Johnson in Week 1 (didn’t play), and he said this about Spencer Brown (didn’t play). And both of them had limited practice that Friday too. Yet we’re supposed to believe that Dawkins doesn’t practice all week, and he’ll buck the trend? The next time it happens will be the first time.
ACTIVE
DB Dee Alford (Right Ankle)
Alford is still working through his right ankle injury, originally suffered in Week 4, which has caused him to miss intermittent time. He missed Week 5, returned Week 6, and then appeared to aggravate the ankle in practice ahead of Week 8 and missed the game.
He does not have a designation but considering it’s still lingering has me believing this may be a bone bruise that may still need some more maintenance.
LB Joe Andreessen (Right Knee)
Andreessen continues to battle this right knee injury that has kept him on the injury report for most of the season. At this point, it’s possible that this is patellar or quad tendinitis, considering he had a right quad issue back in May. Very much a maintenance issue.
OT Spencer Brown (Back)
Brown returns to the lineup after getting a full practice in on Saturday after missing last week. It appears that the back has calmed down enough to allow him to practice but there is always the chance for it to become a problem again.
According to the Banged Up Bills injury database, 8.2 percent of starters who have a back injury miss another game within 8 weeks. 32.7 percent are back on the injury report within 4 weeks, and 38.8 percent are back within 8 weeks. So what this means is there’s a low but non-zero chance this causes Brown to miss another game, but a fair chance that he’s back on the injury report again later this season.
LB Bradley Chubb (Chest/Left Thumb)
Chubb continues to require treatment on his chest injury suffered in Week 6 and his left thumb that was potentially fractured in Week 1. He still practices in full and has no designation.
WR Keon Coleman (Shoulder)
Coleman was one of the surprise additions to the injury report this week with a shoulder designation. He was limited all week with a red non-contact jersey. It’s not clear what the injury is, and it might be something as simple as a contusion. Monday may shed more light on the specifics, but he has no game time designation.
RB Ty Johnson (Illness)
Johnson missed practice Thursday due to illness before returning in full the rest of the week.
TE Dalton Kincaid (Chest)
Kincaid continues to recover from his chest/rib injury suffered in Week 6 against the Las Vegas Raiders. This is more of a time issue to let the injury heal fully. Despite this being designated a chest injury, it’s more ribs due to location, and Bills players spend 2.08 weeks on the injury report with the designation and 1.2 with a chest.
WR D.J. Moore (Left Shoulder)
Moore continues to work back from his SC joint sprain that was originally reported to be an AC joint sprain. When he’s been healthy, he’s been productive for the Bills, which is why they elected to sit him in Weeks 5 and 6. This shoulder will continue to limit him in practice, but he should be good to go for games.
What’s more important is that his left knee that he hyperextended late in Sunday’s game is not on the report.
DT Ed Oliver (Left Knee)
Oliver continues to require treatment on his left knee injury from Week 4 that caused him to miss Weeks 5 and 6. He’s still not 100 percent, but we should see his workload increase and production not far behind.
LB T.J. Parker (Knee)
Parker was questionable last week with a knee issue but played and continues to increase his production through his rookie year. Whatever the knee issue is, he does not have a designation this week and is ready to go.
G Armaj Reed-Adams (Back/Right Elbow)
Reed continues to deal with a right elbow injury that dates back to when he suffered the injury ahead of Week 3. He added his back injury last week but may actually make his NFL debut with both Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson potentially out this week.
DT T.J. Sanders (Left Shoulder)
Sanders continues to deal with his left shoulder injury that popped back up in Week 5. He has been wearing a shoulder harness on the area, which doesn’t offer much as to the specifics of the injury.
S Sam Franklin (Illness)
Franklin missed practice on Friday with an illness but returned to full on Saturday.
DT Deone Walker (Left Thumb)
Walker popped up on the injury report on Friday with a left thumb designation after he appeared in pictures on Thursday with his left hand heavily taped. It’s difficult to identify what the exact injury is, but besides hand fighting, this shouldn’t drastically affect his ability to play Sunday.
INJURED RESERVE
DB Jordan Hancock (Hamstring)
Hancock’s practice window opened this week after he was placed on injured reserve prior to Week 3 after he appeared to suffer the injury during practice. In order to play, he must be activated.
WR Tyrell Shavers (Left Knee)
Shavers is in his second week of his practice window as he returns from his left ACL tear suffered against Jacksonville in the playoffs. It’s promising that he practiced in full all week, but he needs to be activated to the roster in order to play.
If Joshua Palmer goes to IR or they cut someone else, that’s his path. But the Bills shouldn’t be in a rush to return him and can use his practice window for another week.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS INJURY REPORT
OUT
RB Demond Claiborne (Knee)
Claiborne appeared to suffer a knee injury in practice on Thursday, which had him listed as a limited participant before being downgraded to DNP on Friday and Saturday, ruling him out.
QB Kyler Murray (Hamstring)
Murray was ruled out Thursday after suffering what was initially described as hamstring soreness, which required a full eval on Tuesday. Two days later, the team didn’t even elect to try and see if he could practice to keep the Bills on their toes. It remains to be seen how long he will be out but the Bills won’t be seeing him this week as Carson Wentz gets the start.
WR Jauan Jennings (Calf)
Jennings appeared to suffer a calf strain during Thursday’s practice that led him to go from limited to do not participate Friday and Saturday, ruling him out.
QUESTIONABLE
S Theo Jackson (Quad)
Jackson suffered a quadriceps injury in the second half of Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions and was initially questionable to return before being downgraded. He was unable to practice Thursday and Friday before getting a limited practice in on Saturday. There are a few metrics that will tell us whether he suits up. First off, a quadriceps injury for a defensive back has a 47.5 percent chance of the player missing the game, according to the Banged Up Bills injury database.
Historically, players who have a DNP, DNP, or limited participation play at just 37.1 percent of the time dating back to 2016, regardless of position or injury. Combine this together in the current practice probability week, Jackson has a 65.9% percent chance to play. That’s a lot of numbers, but I’m leaning towards him missing due to his practice participation.
S Jay Ward (Knee)
Ward appeared to suffer a knee injury on Friday, the last practice prior to Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions, as he was limited in his participation. He is primarily a special teams player who saw 16 special teams snaps last week and should have no major limitations again.
He was limited all week and is officially questionable; I would expect that he suits up given his limited role and playing through last week.
ACTIVE
OT Christian Darrisaw (Shoulder)
Darrisaw appeared to pick up a shoulder injury at some point during Sunday’s loss that led him to be limited on Thursday before getting a full practice in on Friday and resting Saturday. This is also the first time he has shown up on the injury report for a shoulder so this doesn’t appear to be a chronic issue either.
LB Jake Golday (Calf)
Golday was a new addition to the injury report this week with a calf injury after Sunday’s loss. He is primarily a special teams player and was a full participant on Friday and Saturday after being limited Thursday.
CB Isaiah Rodgers (Ankle)
Rodgers suffered an ankle sprain at some point during Sunday’s loss but the injury appeared minor, as he was limited on Thursday before getting full practices in on Friday and Saturday.
LB Andrew Van Ginkel (Chest)
Ginkel worked through a chest injury this week but finished the week as a full participant. He also appeared on the injury report with a chest designation ahead of Week 2, indicating that these may be more bruised ribs than anything else.
Buffalo Bills Projected Inactives
OT Dion Dawkins
G Alec Anderson
DE Mike Danna
DT Greg Gaines
WR Joshua Palmer
S Jalon Kilgore
WR Skyler Bell
Call Ups: WR Trent Sherfield, S Geno Stone
Minnesota Vikings Projected Inactives
RB Demond Claiborne
QB Kyler Murray
WR Juaun Jennings
S Theo Jackson
OT Caleb Tiernan
Final Thoughts
This should be a thrilling game to see which team comes out on top. The high-flying offensive juggernaut or the defense that stops nearly everyone it faces? This game could come down to mistakes and matchups.
In fact, if both Dawkins and Anderson are out, as I fear, there are notable statistical differences if multiple starting linemen are out. One OL doesn’t move the needle on offensive production, but two do. These insights are derived from the Banged Up Bills injury database with the help of Claude.
- Yards per attempt: 7.26 → ~6.8 (-0.46, the strongest result)
- Pass EPA per attempt: -0.06
- Completion %: -1.2 points
- RBs lose about 1 carry and 3.6 receiving yards a game (~2 fantasy points), not efficiency
Sacks and turnovers barely budge. Offenses protect the QB with shorter throws, not by taking more hits.
The play: two OL starters out? Fade the passing ceiling (yards, big plays), not the floor (sacks, INTs).
What looks like minor differences in isolation can have a larger impact on the passing game. Keep in mind, this is over 10 years and league-wide; Josh Allen alone may mitigate this. But it’s something worth considering how the offense can be affected even with advanced planning. I assume that Tylan Grable starts for Dawkins and Austin Corbett goes in for Anderson.
Additionally, the Bills have also had an interesting trend that I didn’t pick up at first until it was discussed by several accounts this week. The ones that I give credit to are Bills Chat Podcast, and this was later reinforced by The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia.
The Bills have had seven instances where a player was DNP, DNP, Limited, and only one played this year (Keon Coleman, Ankle, Week 3). The rest have ultimately sat. That is a 14 percent play rate for that designation, which is a small sample size but a huge drop-off from the 58.5 percent historical management of that practice participation pattern. A 44.5 percent drop that can’t be ignored. That also threw me for a loop because I frankly didn’t catch this trend until it was mentioned, a looking at the forest instead of the trees moment.
Furthermore, that had me dive into teams that are more conservative versus aggressive than their historical averages. With the help of the injury database and Claude, here are the three teams that are more aggressive than usual and more conservative than usual when it comes to questionable players playing this year. The Bills are far more conservative than their historical norms at just 46.2 percent questionable. They have been lower but 2026 is on the low end for them.
Joe Brady did come in with ideas for managing injuries when he spoke in his press conference when he was hired. We’re seeing the Bills get way more conservative than they usually have been, at 60.6 percent since 2016. I’ve seen teams drastically differ over the years for different reasons, but since we’re hyper-focused on the Bills, this is a notable change. However, they were at 50 percent last year and 40.8 percent in 2024. You have to go back to 2020 at 65 percent to find a year that is above their current average.
I’ve probably bored you with these injury metrics, but they do help tell the story behind team decisions or provide actual data points behind discussions. If you’re interested in learning more or running your own, make sure to check out the Spartera Marketplace and check out all the Banged Up Bills products for fantasy, betting, or general questions.
I’m looking forward to an excellent game with hopefully minimal injury concerns and no sleep following the game.
Top Photo Credit: Sports Illustrated
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