The 2025 NFL Draft is upon us which is the culmination of months of scouting reports, testing, analysis, and mock drafts. All the data is collected and now we must wait to see how teams select the next great crop of NFL athletes.
Due to their successful 2024 season, the Buffalo Bills are slated to select 30th overall in the first round and have 10 picks overall, giving them plenty of opportunities to move around the board. The Bills have had their hits and misses, but have demonstrated the ability to build a competitive roster. One hallmark of a Brandon Beane draft has been knowing when to avoid or take risks.
One notable trend that has shown to have some level of consistency is considering a player’s injury history early in the draft. Since 2018 when Brandon Beane took over as GM, there has been a consistent and reliable trend of selecting players with minimal injury concerns in rounds one and two of the draft. Once they hit Round 3 and beyond, things are more flexible, but knowing what players may be off the board medically when the Bills are on the clock helps narrow possibilities down.
The Bills have selected 55 players since 2018 which provides a strong sample size. To see the 2018-2021 draft histories, click here. For 2022, click here. For 2023, click here.
2024 NFL Draft
2021 Michigan State
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 Michigan State
Hip flexor muscle tear, missed 0 games.
2023 Florida State
Undisclosed injury, vs Wake Forest, missed 1 game.
2021 Utah
Hamstring injury, missed 3 games total.
2022 Utah
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Utah
Undisclosed injury, vs Oregon, missed 1 game.
2022 Duke
Leg injury, vs Virginia Tech, missed 0 games.
2023 Duke
Undisclosed surgery, missed spring workouts.
Groin strain, missed portion of fall camp.
2019 Temple
No publicly reported injuries.
2020 Temple
Knee injury, vs Tulane
2021 Vanderbilt
Right toe ligament tear, vs Stanford, missed 9 games
2022 Vanderbilt
No publicly reported injuries
2023 Kentucky
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 Georgia
Left knee injury, vs Kentucky, missed the first half.
2021 Washington
Left partial bicep tear, vs UCLA, missed 6 games.
2022 Washington
ACL tear, during winter drills, missed 8 games.
2020 Troy
COVID, vs Middle Tennessee, missed 1 game.
2021 Troy
No publicly reported injuries.
2022 Troy
Undisclosed injury, missed spring practices.
2023 Troy
Undisclosed injury, required surgery, missed spring, summer practices.
2017 High School
Broken foot twice, missed senior season of football.
College
2021 Jacksonville State
Undisclosed injury, vs UAB, missed 1 game.
Undisclosed injury in 2021, vs Central Arkansas, missed 2 games.
2022 Jacksonville State
No publicly reported injuries.
2023 University of Central Florida
Undisclosed injury, spring ball.
2023 Penn State
Undisclosed injury, preseason, missed 2 games.
Shin splints
Draft Analysis
The Buffalo Bills have continued their trend over the last seven seasons of selecting players without major or even moderate injury concerns in the first two rounds. Most fractures, minor sprains, contusions, and isolated soft tissue injuries led to minimal missed time. The one exception is fractures for obvious reasons. They made a slight deviation from that last year when they selected Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop with isolated soft tissue injuries in their history but not during their final college seasons.
Once the third round begins, the Bills become more relaxed in terms of selecting players with injury concerns as this appears to be the demarcation point for getting top talent. The Bills have also selected players without injury concerns in this round, but historically this has trended towards talent plus increased injury risk.
Every player they have selected in the first two rounds has managed to stay fairly healthy during their time as Buffalo Bills. Many have had high-ankle sprains, AC joint sprains, minor strains/sprains, and concussions, but otherwise have not suffered major injuries or missed extended time. Many of the players selected in the first two rounds have largely been productive at some point in their time in Buffalo even if it was a slow development.
The two exceptions to this have been Cody Ford and Kaiir Elam.
Ford missed half of the 2020 season with a meniscus tear and throughout his other two seasons battled various injuries including requiring off-season shoulder surgery. He was largely ineffective playing guard and tackle before his trade to the Arizona Cardinals.
Elam had battled several foot and ankle injuries during both seasons and missed most of last year due to a lingering ankle issue. Both have been viewed as busts or at the very least not lived up to their draft status. Both came in with minimal injury issues coming out of college and that luck did not transition to the pros.
Dalton Kincaid is trending in this direction after 2023 saw him deal with two knee injuries including a PCL sprain. He also dealt with a collarbone issue and was not healthy most of the season. Should 2025 look like 2024, he would fall into this group of players.
One additional note, the 2017 Bills draft class is not addressed as that was completed under a different general manager. The conservative nature of selecting players in Round 1 & 2 did fit in line with the Tre’Davious White, Zay Jones and Dion Dawkins selections. Dawkins has continued to play and be incredibly durable. Zay Jones had his torn labrum issue linger all season his rookie year and got it repaired following the season. That did affect his production at times.
We did see White fall off a cliff with his ACL tear followed by his Achilles tear. The Bills got five supreme years out of White before he began to suffer injuries with those not really being predictable. He is the only other high draft pick that has dealt with injury but well into his career. It’s better to have gotten production out of him early on rather than nothing at all.
Draft Results
Of those 55 players drafted, only 28 remain on the Bills roster. There are 22 players still in the league on an NFL roster somewhere that were either claimed, traded for, left in free agency, or cut. Since 2018, only five players are not on NFL rosters which include: VoSean Joseph, Austin Proehl, Marquez Stevenson, Rachad Wildgoose, and Jaquan Johnson. Everyone except Wildgoose continued to play football at lower levels for several years with Joseph going to the CFL, Proehl to the XFL, and Stevenson to the UFL. Wildgoose retired and is producing content on YouTube. Johnson last played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023.
This at least indicates that Brandon Beane has been successful at drafting and retaining players or if they leave for various reasons, they remain in the league elsewhere.
Looking at this year’s draft prospects requires identifying criteria to understand their process to select players who could be targets based on the above-mentioned draft tendencies.
Criteria
-I used The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s “The Beast” draft guide as a reference for this project using his draft grades on every player and obtaining additional injury history.
-Players are sorted into three different tiers: Healthy, Concerns, and Traits. Each player will have their projected draft grade in parentheses next to their name.
-Using the past trends observed by the Bills, a healthy pick in Round 1 or 2 is someone graded out at that position who has minimal injury history such as most fractures, minor sprains, contusions, or overall minimal missed time. Muscle strains aren’t necessarily excluded, but they have to show that they are several years removed from their last instance or not repeated instances.
-Concern picks are players identified as around Round 1 or 2 talents that have injury concerns and will have a brief injury history included.
-A Traits pick is projected as a Round 2-3 player or beyond. The Bills tend to go traits in this round regardless of injury. They will also have a brief injury history included.
-Many players are listed as Round 2-3 grade in the draft guide. To help determine a cut-off, players with injury issues listed under Concerns are the top 64 players. Traits will be players with injury concerns pick 65 and beyond.
-Nearly every position will have healthy, concerns, and traits picks.
Exclusions
-Tight End is not a high draft need and will not be addressed for this project.
-I do expect the Bills to draft some developmental offensive lineman but on Day 3 which means they are not needed for this project.
-We have Josh Allen, no need to look at quarterbacks.
Cornerback
Healthy
Travis Hunter (1st)
Jahdae Barron (1st-2nd)
Azareye’h Thomas (2nd)
Jacob Parrish (2nd-3rd)
Nohl Williams (2nd-3rd)
Darien Porter (3rd-4th)
Trey Amos (2nd)
Concerns
Will Johnson (1st-2nd)
2023 Knee Scope, cartilage damage
2024 Turf toe, shoulder injury, missed 6 games
Shavon Revel (2nd-3rd)
2024- Left ACL tear
Maxwell Hairston (1st-2nd)
2024 Shoulder injury, missed 5 games
Traits
Benjamin Morrison (2nd-3rd)
High school hip surgery
2023 Quad strain, missed 1 game
2024 Right shoulder surgery
2024 Left hip surgery, missed 10 games
Quincy Riley (3rd-4th)
2019 Labrum/sports hernia
2020 Undisclosed injury
2021- Ankle injury, missed multiple games
2024- Left ankle/foot
Defensive Tackle
Healthy
Mason Graham (1st)
Kenneth Grant (1st-2nd)
Alfred Collins (2nd-3rd)
TJ Sanders (2nd-3rd)
Jordan Phillips (3rd-4th)
Joshua Farmer (3rd)
Concerns
Derrick Harmon (1st-2nd)
2024 Left shoulder injury
2023 Undisclosed injury
Walter Nolen (1st-2nd)
2023 Undisclosed injury
2024 Left knee
Tyleik Williams (2nd)
Shemar Turner (2nd)
2021 Missed 4 games
2022 Missed 1 game
2023 Torn shoulder labrum, missed 1 game
2024 Right shin stress fracture requiring surgery
Traits
Omarr Norman-Lott (3rd-4th)
2021- Undisclosed injury, missed 2 games
2022- Undisclosed injury, missed 3 games
2023- Undisclosed injury, missed 3 games
2024- Right knee, combine
EDGE
Healthy
Jalon Walker (1st)
Shemar Stewart (1st)
Mike Green (1st)
Mykel Williams (1st-2nd)
James Pearce (2nd)
Donovan Ezeiruaku (1st-2nd)
JT Tuimoloau (2nd)
Jack Sawyer (2nd)
Nic Scourton (2nd)
Josaiah Stewart (3rd)
Ashton Gillotte (3rd)
Oluwafemi Oladejo (2nd-3rd)
Concerns
Abdul Carter (1st)
2024- Shoulder injury requiring surgery, stress fracture foot
Landon Jackson (2nd)
Jordan Burch (2nd)
2020- Right hand, missed 2 games
2023- Left knee injury, missed 2 games
2024- Ankle, knee meniscus tear, missed 3 games.
Traits
Princely Umanmielen (2nd-3rd)
2023- Shoulder injury requiring surgery
2024- Left high-ankle sprain, missed 2 games
2025- Senior Bowl injury
Wide Receiver
Healthy
Tetairoa McMillan (1st)
Emeka Egbuka (1st-2nd)
Jayden Higgins (2nd)
Jaylin Noel (2nd)
Jack Bech (2nd-3rd)
Isaiah Bond (3rd)
Jalen Royals (2nd-3rd)
Concerns
Luther Burden (1st-2nd)
2022- Left ankle injury
2023- Undisclosed injury
2024- Left shoulder injury
Matthew Golden (1st-2nd)
2022- Ribs, missed 2 games
2023- Groin, turf toe with surgery, missed 3 games
2025- Foot/ankle injury
Traits
Tre Harris (2nd-3rd)
2023- Knee surgery
2024- Groin injury, missed 3 games
Elic Ayomanor (3rd)
High school- torn PCL
2022- Torn ACL, MCL, meniscus
Linebacker
Healthy
Carson Schwesinger (2nd)
Danny Stusman (3rd)
Chris Paul (3rd-4th)
Concerns
LB Jihaad Campbell (1st-2nd)
2025- Left shoulder labrum repair
Traits
None
Safety
Healthy
None
Concerns
Malaki Starks (1st-2nd)
2023- Preseason injury, labrum repair, missed spring workouts
Nick Emmanwori (1st-2nd)
2022- Lower body injury
2023- Hamstring, missed 1 game
2024- Right arm injury
Xavier Watts (2nd)
2025- Right shoulder injury
Traits
Kevin Winston (3rd)
2024- Left ACL tear, missed nearly entire season
Andrew Mukuba (3rd-4th)
2022- Sprained MCL, dislocated elbow, ankle injury, missed 2 games
2024- Left knee injury
Pre-Draft Visits/Interviews
Thank you to Ryan Talbot of NYUpstate.com for curating this Top 30 list of pre-draft visits and interviews.
Healthy
EDGE Nic Scourton
WR Jalen Royals
CB Trey Amos
DE Femi Oladejo
WR Isaiah Bond
CB Darien Porter
RB Jaydon Blue
CB Jacob Parrish
DT TJ Sanders
DE Shemar Stewart
DT Ty Robinson
CB Dorian Strong
WR Issac TeSlaa
WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith
Concerns
DT Deone Walker
CB Maxwell Hairston
DT Tyleik Williams
CB Shavon Revel Jr.
CB Benjamin Morrison
WR Tory Holton
WR Arian Smith
EDGE Braydn Swinston
DT Omarr Norman-Lott
Observations
The Bills have plenty of options when it comes to selecting a defensive tackle, EDGE, or cornerback in the first two rounds. Their pre-draft visits and history suggests that they are going down this route. Wide receiver could be an option but not as pressing of a need. They could pivot and go best player available, but they have needs that can be addressed and find some starters in this draft.
The Bills used 9 Top 30 visits on players with extensive injury histories and 14 on healthy players or those with minimal concerns.
This exercise is to help identify what potential draft targets could be selected within the first two rounds. If the Bills skip over a player or a player begins to fall, understanding the injury concerns may explain why. This isn’t meant to outright predict who they will select, but can help narrow down who they could by eliminating variables.
In 2024, I initially considered Keon Coleman a risky pick due to prior soft tissue injuries, but he was healthy in 2023 and that allowed the Bills to select him with confidence. Cole Bishop was a traits player with several notable injuries but nothing in 2023. As the Bills pivot with their needs, so do their risk for injuries.
The Pick Is In
Everyone knows what the target positions are, it remains to be seen how the board falls and who will be available if the Bills select at 30 or move around.
One final piece of information, The Buffalo News printed a story last year about how the Bills look for what they call “Bills Blue” players. These are the cream of the crop players who fit everything the Bills are looking for. According to the article, only roughly 30 prospects get this designation. They are not necessarily a top player but they help break ties and allow them to get solid players in every round. The article is well worth the read to provide more insight into the Bills scouting process.
The draft is far from a guarantee, but the trend to target healthy and talented players early in the draft should continue into 2025 as the Bills find their next key contributors.
Top Photo Credit: RochesterFirst.com
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