The Buffalo Bills take on the AFC’s top seed Denver Broncos in the divisional round with the winner moving to the AFC Championship game. The Bills are coming off a hard fought 27-24 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars while the Broncos are coming off a bye.
With the game in Denver at a higher altitude, the Broncos are coming off a bye and have less injuries, it seems like everything is stacked against the Bills. Their injury report is a mile long, they recently lost two wide receivers to ACL tears, and they are a road team trying to make the Super Bowl, a hard task in itself.
It seems like everything is stacked against the Bills in this game but they do have a ton of playoff experience and Josh Allen. Despite the differences, the Broncos are favored by 1.5 points, a seemingly razor thin margin indicating that this game is nearly a coin flip.
Read below for detailed analysis of each team’s injury report and projected inactives.
BUFFALO BILLS INJURY REPORT
OUT
CB Maxwell Hairston (Right Ankle)
Hairston will miss his second consecutive game after he suffered what appeared to be a right high-ankle sprain against the New York Jets in Week 18. He has been unable to practice the last two weeks and should the Bills win, he has a shot to play next week but will still not be 100%. He needs to be able to backpedal, cut, and push off that right side effectively along with jumping. He could do some of those motions but if that receiver wants to cut across him and he needs to pivot on that right leg, he’s going to lose any leverage he has in covering his assignment.
Tre’Davious White is holding things down while Hairston recovers.
S Jordan Poyer (Left Hamstring)
Poyer will miss the divisional round playoff matchup due to an aggravation of his left hamstring strain originally suffered against the Cleveland Browns in Week 16.
One of these two plays led to his re-injury though it’s not clear which one it was. He did attempt to line up for the next play before it was whistled dead. He was replaced by Jordan Hancock for the remainder of the game after he was ruled out.
There’s a chance he could go next week should the Bills win, but we’ll have to see how things play out. He is a huge loss to the secondary with Cam Lewis taking over his duties.
QUESTIONABLE
RB Ty Johnson (Right Ankle)
This one had me fooled last week. Johnson suffers what appears to be a right high-ankle sprain early in the game against the Jets. He returns immediately and finishes the game.
He then doesn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday before getting a limited practice in on Friday. From my research, I found that over 80 percent of Bills players in the playoffs who get a limited practice in on that final day end up playing. Johnson was one of the few that didn’t.
This week played out very much like last week and even during his warmups in practice, the ankle looks very stiff and as though he cannot push off it well. Another week does bring him closer but if it looks that stiff during warmups and he was wearing a boot on Sunday, I don’t see how he plays Saturday.
LB Terrel Bernard (Right Calf)
Bernard has missed the last two games with a right calf injury suffered against the Philadelphia Eagles while making a tackle in the second quarter. This is the same side of his previous right ankle injury in Week 6 and same side of his hamstring strain in the preseason.
This isn’t the best example, but nothing about Bernard looks fluid. Hindsight says he should have been put on IR for a stint, but as a team captain, he likely felt it was his duty to play through everything. If he does play, he becomes a liability due to how much the injuries impact his ability to perform.
With how well Shaq Thompson is playing, the only way Bernard should be on the field is if Thompson gets hurt. Bernard needs a full offseason to get whatever he needs surgically repaired, rest, and focus on his health. Considering the needs around the roster, I can’t see how the Bills use a roster spot on Bernard this week.
ACTIVE
QB Josh Allen (Right Foot/Left Knee/Right Finger)
After getting beaten and battered after multiple trips to the medical tent on Sunday, Allen is on the injury report with his right foot, left knee, and right finger.
Looking at pictures from practice Wednesday, Allen looked to be alright from an injury perspective in that there’s potentially some swelling in the left knee and right knuckle but he’s able to do all his practice drills.
He was flexing out his left knee while throwing indicating there may be some soreness stepping into his throw, but this may only be a problem if he takes further hits to his knee. He may wear a small brace or sleeve on the area to help mitigate swelling, but it’s something that likely won’t be easily visible.
His right foot continues to linger from what was described as an old bone injury. I discussed this in my article from Sunday night, but it’s possible this is a stress reaction injury from a possible avulsion fracture from when he rolled his ankle against the Texans last year. The team likely did x-rays over the next two games to make sure things weren’t worsening and managed the issue to have him be ready game day.
I have no idea how he kept getting up after every hit on Sunday, he’s not human. But hopefully he can avoid some of the hits this week otherwise, there may be one that breaks the camels back.
DE AJ Epenesa (Neck)
Epenesa was a new addition to the injury report this week with a neck designation. He appeared to injure the neck with 8:04 left in the fourth when he collided with a Jaguars offensive lineman. He hit and then came away shaking his head out. It’s possible he suffered a stinger and being on the injury report was to help manage any lingering symptoms.
He does not have a game day designation and is ready to play Saturday.
TE Dalton Kincaid (Left Knee/Calf)
Kincaid is continuing to work through a left knee injury originally that dates back to Week 10 last year after he suffered his PCL sprain. He has been dealing with this knee injury all year after aggravating it in training camp and then again during rehab from his hamstring strain.
He added a left calf injury to his injury list after he got up slowly from his touchdown in the fourth quarter on Sunday. He did land flat footed which could have tweaked the calf and he also collided with the camera man as seen in this IG reel from the Bills.
He does appear to hit more with his right leg than left leg in the video, but this may have been more of a contusion as well. He was spotted in a boot after the game on social media which Sean McDermott said was precautionary.
He will continue to gut out this injury until the end of the season and almost certainly undergo surgery to repair the damage in his knee.
LB Matt Milano (Ankle)
Milano was a new addition to the injury report on Tuesday with an ankle designation. The best video I could find of a potential injury is below when his ankles got tied up and fell on with 13:33 left in the fourth quarter.
His play did not suffer from what I saw on the field for the rest of the game and may just be more of a maintenance issue. I expect him to continue to demonstrate his excellent play this second half of the season.
K Matt Prater (Right Quad/Right Calf)
Prater continues to work through his right quad injury while also adding a right calf injury. He was previously on the injury report for a right calf injury ahead of Week 9 though he played through the issue.
He was able to kick field goals and extra points last week while Mitch Wishnowsky handled kickoff duties. I could see a scenario where the Bills do this again so that Prater can make it through the game. He is another week removed from the injury though that does not mean he is not at risk for further re-injury. This is something the Bills will continue to manage and have Matthew Wright as an option in the event Prater gets injured again.
DE Greg Rousseau (Back)
Rousseau suffered a back injury during Sunday’s game potentially with 12:55 left in the fourth quarter during the Jaguars extra point attempt. He had several Bills players fall on him trying to block the kick.
This wasn’t notable except for the fact that Bills social media caught Rousseau performing prone press ups on the sidelines with one of the PT’s. The back likely was spasming or stiffening up on him which meant the team needed to get ahead of the discomfort before it worsened. These exercises are used for disc issues as well, though if he had an acutely herniated disc, he wouldn’t have returned to the game. Even a chronic herniation wouldn’t have responded that quickly to return to an NFL game.
This appears to be more of a maintenance issue and he has no designation heading into Saturday.
INJURED RESERVE
All three players are questionable.
DT Ed Oliver (Left Biceps/Left Knee)
Oliver returned to practice this week 11 weeks after his left distal biceps repair on October 28. He was able to participate in warmups during the media viewing portion, but it’s unknown if he was able to do any individual or team drills. His limited participation says he did something, but we don’t know how much he really did.
It’s important to note that Oliver is wearing a sleeve on his left knee after getting his knee scoped for a meniscus tear back on December 29. Oliver’s bigger issue is his biceps repair at this point. He’s 11 weeks and a few days removed from the surgery. The tendon is healed completely to the ulna. The issue is how much load can that tendon take? There aren’t studies that I’ve found that show the re-tear rate with return to sports in this instance. There are studies that show a re-rupture is a complication several weeks after surgery, but Oliver is way outside that window.
Considering he is moving twice as fast ahead of schedule at just over 11 weeks versus someone who is taken through the rehab slowly, I’d estimate that Oliver’s chance to re-tear is at 50 percent. He could, he might not. There aren’t any studies that I’ve found that shows the re-tear risk when returning to sport that I’ve found.
This will come down to how much load the elbow can take and how effective he can be blocking, tackling, shedding blocks, and grasping. When he does return, he won’t be at pre-injury Ed Oliver.
His hand fighting on the left side will be reduced, he won’t be able to generate the leverage to work inside or shed his block as well. He will able to tackle but may rely more on the right side to start the tackle and have the left help finish. If he’s active, he can do these activities, but he’s maybe at 75% of pre-injury level.
His legs are incredibly fresh despite the meniscus trim and even if he can offer pressure up the middle and be a disruptive force, then that’s all the Bills need.
They don’t need sacks, tackles for loss, or even open field tackles.
They need someone who’s pissed he hasn’t played in nearly three months and will show how much of a menace he can be.
I can see him being activated since there may be no next week.
To read more about his original injury, click below.
S Damar Hamlin (Left Pectoral)
Hamlin began his second week back to practice following his left pectoral repair back in October. He has not been wearing a red non-contact jersey but also has not been wearing a shoulder harness from what we’ve seen at practice.
This tells me that his pectoral is still not ready whether it be from a strengthening aspect or considering a safety has to be able to wrap up players more in tackling versus blocking like we’ve seen with other Bills pectoral injuries. The Bills may be ramping him up in the event that he is needed, but also making this part of his rehab.
He may be the odd man out with only two active roster spots available unless they need him and cut someone. I don’t see him playing.
WR Curtis Samuel (Elbow)
Due to the injuries to Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis, Samuel’s practice window has been activated after being placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 13. At the time, an elbow and knee injury were the issues that forced him onto IR, but when he came back, only his elbow was the issue.
Frankly, I have no idea what Samuel did to his elbow. He has been injured so often, it’s difficult to find every injury. What I do know is that he is a fresh body who has at least some chemistry with Josh Allen and is needed due to the sudden lack of depth.
I expect him to be activated for Saturday.
SEASON ENDING INJURED RESERVE
WR Gabe Davis (Left Knee ACL Tear)
The Bills lost both Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to their respective ACL tears on Sunday. Davis got sandwiched between several with 10:47 left in the fourth quarter.
The initial hope was that he suffered an MCL sprain but the fact that he was ruled out so quickly said that it wasn’t a good situation. Monday confirmed that he had torn his ACL and that he would be done for the season. This was the same knee he had his PCL and meniscus repaired last year. It is a coincidence that he tore up the same knee; his previous injury had nothing to do with this latest injury. Davis begins the long rehab process again and will undergo surgery within the next few weeks. He is looking at a midseason return at the earliest after a start on the PUP list.
WR Tyrell Shavers (Left Knee ACL Tear)
Shavers was the bigger surprise when it was revealed on Tuesday that he had also torn his left ACL. What was remarkable was that he suffered the injury with 4:41 left in the second quarter on a punt return. He was bumped to his left and pivoted on his knee which forced him to briefly leave the game.
He was able to return with a hinged brace on and finish the game on a torn ACL. What likely happened was that he partially tore the ACL, the team knew that the end result would be the same whether it was a partial or full tear in that he would require surgery. The knee was likely stable enough and he could perform on it to at least finish the game.
I had a hard time discerning what the injury was simply due to the fact I was not considering that he suffered a meniscus tear and was able to return, much less an ACL tear. Both injuries I don’t expect a player to return to the game.
He showed how tough he is and earned his contract for next year. He will also undergo surgery in the next several weeks and look to return midseason at the earliest, beginning his season on PUP.
DENVER BRONCOS INJURY REPORT
ACTIVE
DL John Franklin-Myers (Hip)
Franklin-Myers missed Week 18 after suffering a hip injury against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17. Looking at the game film, it’s not clear when he suffered the injury but he played only half of his normal snaps.
He was able to practice in full all week and has no designation.
LB Dre Greenlaw (Left Hamstring)
Greenlaw missed the last two weeks of the regular season after suffering what looked to be a left hamstring strain with 2:07 left in the fourth quarter in Week 16. This is the same side he tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2023 season though it’s difficult to say whether this is directly related.
Since Week 10, he has taken between 60-77 percent of the defensive snaps but coming off this hamstring strain, I’d expect that he is reduced in workload. The Broncos have moved to having three cornerbacks on the field in his absence. They may keep this set up and change up the defensive package as needed which could help Greenlaw fresh.
I expect him to play but not at the same level as prior to the injury.
He was limited Wednesday and Thursday but got a full practice on Friday and has no designation.
INJURED RESERVE
LB Drew Sanders (Ankle)
Sanders’ 21-day practice window opened up this week after suffering a tendon tear in his ankle/foot and undergoing surgery. He has been rehabbing but it remains to be seen whether he will actually go. Considering this is basically a free body for practice, there is no risk to activating him.
He was ruled out on Friday and has not been activated.
TE Lucas Krull (Left Foot)
Krull’s 21-day practice window opened this week as he continues to recover from a left foot Jones fracture on October 27. He is just outside the window for a risk to re-fracture the area by returning to practice, but considering he is a depth tight end and special teams contributor, his window may be opened more to have him be ready should the Broncos advance.
However, he was ruled out and will not be activated this weekend.
Buffalo Bills Projected Inactives
LB Terrel Bernard
RB Ty Johnson
S Jordan Poyer
CB Maxwell Hairston
TE Keleki Latu
DT Larry Ogunjobi
OT Tylan Grable
Activated: DT Ed Oliver, WR Curtis Samuel
Call Up: RB Frank Gore Jr, WR Mecole Hardman
Denver Broncos Projected Inactives
OT Geron Christian
TE Marcedes Lewis
CB Reese Taylor
LB Que Robinson
DL Jordan Jackson
Final Thoughts
Much like last week, the team that makes the fewer mistakes wins this game. Fortune favors the bold and the team willing to take that risk can come out on top. The Bills have a ton of playoff experience while the Broncos did make the playoffs last year but got bounced by the Bills in the Wild Card round.
The Broncos do have Sean Payton who has won a Super Bowl and been in plenty other playoff games with the New Orleans Saints, but only so much can translate over to the play on the field. They also have a HUGE injury advantage by playing at home and have far fewer injured. The Bills may be getting some reinforcements if Oliver, Samuel, or even Hamlin return as fresh bodies, but having not played in several weeks like Samuel or several months like Oliver and Hamlin could leave them rusty as they work back into game shape.
This is a winnable game for each team but it will come down to who has the better day. Maybe health will be the deciding factor. Maybe playoff experience. Possibly coaching. Maybe a combination of the three.
This should be an incredibly competitive game that could come down to the final possession. I’m looking forward to an entertaining game and Bills win.
Top Photo Credit: CBS Sports
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Excellent work as always!